Blue Book of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Economic growth rate dropped to 6%-6.5% in the 13th Five-Year Plan

At the International Symposium on "The New Normal of China's Economy - Speed, Structure and Motivation" held by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on December 17, many experts believed that the potential economic growth rate of the "13th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be higher than that of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". Five" is further reduced by about 1 percentage point, between 6% and 6.5%.

The next step is to accelerate the implementation of deepening reform measures, including the implementation of greater structural tax cuts and delays in retirement measures.

Lu Hao, deputy researcher of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that if the tax reduction rate is one-fifth and the retirement age is extended for five years, the total factor productivity can be increased. At this time, the reform dividend will slow down the trend of economic slowdown. Up to 7.62%".

Total factor productivity refers to the efficiency of production activities in a certain period of time, that is, the ratio of total output to total factor input. Sources of total factor productivity include technological advancement, organizational innovation, specialization, and production innovation.

The potential economic growth rate is the economic growth rate that can be supported under the conditions of energy, resources and human resources. In 2012 and 2013, China's economic growth rate was 7.7%, and the economic growth rate in the first three quarters of 2014 was 7.4%. This is the lowest value for removing abnormal years since the reform and opening up. The Chinese economy has entered a new normal of medium and high-speed growth.

"13th Five-Year Plan" economic growth rate may be lowered again

In the meantime, China’s economic growth rate was around 14% in 2007, and China’s economic growth rate was 7.4% in the first three quarters of 2014. China’s economic growth rate has slowed for seven consecutive years.

Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that when the Chinese economy reaches the equilibrium point of rapid growth, China's economic growth will slow down. Among them, the growth rate of investment in the whole society will be between 10% and 11%, the growth rate of fixed assets will be around 13%, the growth rate of manufacturing investment will be 11%, and the growth rate of real estate investment will be about 5%. "At that time, China's GDP growth rate will be between 6% and 6.5%," he said at the forum on December 17.

The Central Economic Work Conference, which closed on December 11, proposed that China’s economy is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth. The mode of economic development is shifting from scale-type and extensive growth to quality-efficiency-type intensive growth, and the economic structure is expanding from incremental The main steering is to adjust the stock and make the depth adjustment of the superior increment. The economic development momentum is shifting from the traditional growth point to the new growth point.

Understanding the new normal, adapting to the new normal, and leading the new normal are the big logic of China's economic development at present and in the future.

According to the 2015 Blue Book of Economics published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the average economic growth rate of China's 30 years of reform and opening up is about 10%, but by the time of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2010-2015), the potential economic growth rate has dropped to 7.6. %, "13th Five-Year" will further drop to between 6% and 6.5%.

Experts recommend increasing tax cuts

At the forum on December 17, many experts suggested that in order to stabilize economic growth in a reasonable range, structural tax cuts, second-time vacancies, and delays in retirement can be adopted.

Lu Wei believes that if the tax reduction ratio is one-fifth and the retirement age is extended for five years, the total factor growth rate (TFP) will increase from 1.4 to 1.6. At this time, the reform dividend will slow down the trend of economic slowdown. At this time, the potential growth rate Up to 7.62%.

The 2015 Blue Book of Economics issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently pointed out that if the second-child birth policy is fully liberalized, it will be unfavorable to the economy in the short run, but in the long run, it can contribute 0.4-0.5 percentage points to the economic growth rate. Positive effect.

That is, if the second child is fully liberalized, China's economic growth rate will be about 4.2% by 2050, otherwise it will be only about 3.8%.

Since 2012, the working-age population in China has continued to decline. Although the “two children” fertility policy has been liberalized, that is, one party is the only child, then the husband and wife can have two. But this loosening measure is not effective. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimates that the current "two children" policy was originally expected to increase 3 million newborns per year, but in fact there are only about 690,000 eligible couples applying for birth in the country.

It is precisely because of the decline in China's working-age population that the low-cost labor force supporting China's economic growth has weakened, and it has become one of the drivers of sustained economic slowdown.

Li Yang, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that under the "old normal state", tens of millions of labors are put into manufacturing every year from idle or semi-idle state, which is an important reason for supporting China's rapid growth.

However, changes in the demographic structure mean that the cheap labor supply model has ended in the traditional sense, that is, the demographic dividend disappears, labor costs rise, and labor input declines.

However, there are also new development models under the new normal. Structural tax cuts can increase the proportion of residents in national income distribution, which is conducive to the improvement of residents' income level and increase the contribution rate of consumption to the economy.

The trade-off between capital and labor, the relationship between strength and weakness, exists in the market economy. "We need to increase the proportion of residents' income now. We need to increase the consumption level of residents. First, we must promote fair distribution. It should be said that the speed of economic growth to medium and high levels has created preconditions for us to solve this problem." Yang said.

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