China's macro policy has opened the curtain

On November 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on changes in consumer prices. After Premier Wen Jiabao first proposed “pre-tuning and fine-tuning” in Tianjin Binhai New Area at the end of October, Premier Wen Jiabao once again stated on November 6 that the most important way to regulate prices is to promote production. "The next year's regulation and control will undergo major changes. Monetary policy should serve the real economy, accelerate the reform of income distribution, and drive domestic demand, rather than monetary tightening." He Wei, deputy director of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, told the China Business Journal. Despite the opening of the policy adjustment, the magnitude of the policy adjustment is still suspense, and everything will not be seen until the end of the Central Economic Work Conference. The price entered the down channel . A waste product manager living in Fengtai District, Beijing, received a notice from the waste recycling company two weeks ago. In addition to the plastic bottle recycling price unchanged, the recycling price of paper boxes and newspapers fell by 20%. The recycling price of used and discarded goods is a microcosm of China's industrial product prices. On October 9, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the industrial producer price index (hereinafter referred to as PPI) quickly fell back to 5%, while the consumer price index (hereinafter referred to as CPI) fell back to 5.5%, hitting a five-month low. In general, the recycling price of scrap and raw material scrap is a lagging indicator of the price of industrial products. That is to say, when the prices of other industrial products fall, the prices of recycled materials in these industrial fields finally fall. Since the PPI is ahead of the CPI, in other words, from a trend perspective, prices have entered a downward channel. The CPI data for October blew the horn of the price downturn. The data showed that the year-on-year increase in CPI in October was significantly slowed to 5.5% from 6.1% in September. Among them, non-food prices rose by 2.7% year-on-year, and foods rose by 11.9% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase in pork prices in October slowed to 42% from 50% in the previous month. The price of food and agricultural products (000061) accounts for one-third of the weight of CPI, and pork prices account for one-third of the price of agricultural products. Once the prices of agricultural products and pork enter the decline cycle, it will indicate that CPI will also enter a downward cycle. At the same time, PPI prices have entered the downward channel ahead of schedule. The fall in PPI inflation in October far exceeded expectations, from 5.0% in September to 5.0%, and a month-on-month decline of 0.7%. The impact of the ongoing tightening of monetary policy on enterprises has attracted the attention of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' industrial economic research. At the press conference of the 2011 China Industrial Development Report, Huang Sujian, deputy director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that The difficulties faced by Chinese companies in rising costs, financing difficulties, rapid appreciation of the renminbi, and pressure for transformation and upgrading are more prominent than in 2008, and economic policies should be moderately adjusted. The same is true of the policy relaxation signal . As the price indicator enters the decline channel, the signs of policy adjustment become more and more obvious. The first thing to relax is credit. According to the reporter's understanding, after 10 working days in October, credit began to increase sharply. In October, the four major banks increased their loans by about 160 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, the new loans in October will be around 500 billion yuan. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 5.69 trillion yuan, of which about 470 billion yuan was added in September, which was the lowest monthly credit for the year. Due to the holiday factors in October, the market generally predicted that new loans in October will continue to hit a new low in the year. However, the last ten days of October prevented the birth of this record. “This is actually a clear signal. In September, M1 and M2 increased by 8.9% and 13% respectively. The growth rate continued to fall and hit a new low. The growth rate of M2 money supply has fallen below the government target of 16%. It’s impossible to tighten again, and it must be moderately relaxed,” said financial expert Zhao Qingming. The second aspect of relaxation is the central bank rate. The recently issued three-year central bank bill rate has been lowered for the first time in 15 months. As a central banknote for the monetary policy "wind vane", this change has received attention from outsiders. On November 8, the central bank issued a 10 billion yuan one-year central bank bill, and the interest rate dropped by 1.07 basis points from the previous period. This is the first time that the one-year central bank bill has risen to 3.584% three months ago. The first reduction in 28 months. "Comparatively, the one-year central bank bill rate is stronger than the three-year central bank bill. If the 3-year central bank bill's winning rate declines, it can be seen as a signal to suspend the policy, and the currency can be confirmed. The policy enters the observation period; then the interest rate of the one-year central bank bill will fall, and the policy significance will be strong.” Shi Lei, deputy general manager of the fixed income department of Ping An Securities, said. CITIC Securities (600030) latest research report said that the funds will be generally under pressure before the year, the central bank is expected to cut the deposit reserve ratio before the Spring Festival; and the research report of CCB International also said that the central bank may announce the first cut of deposits this year in early December. Reserve rate. The signal to lower the deposit reserve ratio is very strong. Once it is touched, it will officially announce the turn of China's macroeconomic regulation and control policy. "I believe that before the end of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year, the central bank will not lower the deposit reserve ratio, and the policy will not be fully relaxed. The reason is that the current housing price regulation is at a critical moment, and the second is the repetitiveness of inflation. In 2012, the situation is even more After the clearing, it is more calm to lower the deposit reserve ratio." An expert close to the central bank's decision told reporters. The adjustment in the fourth quarter is imperative in the implementation of China's macroeconomic regulation and control for a year, which has caused many controversies. "Since this year, due to excessive reliance on currency regulation, price and liquidity have been used to regulate prices. At present, prices are still at a high level, but the real economy and business operations have experienced greater difficulties," He said. "Monetary policy has little effect on prices. At present, rising prices are a supply problem. We must start through the links of production and circulation, and simply increase the deposit reserve ratio. Coupled with the deterioration of the foreign trade situation, this will have a serious impact on foreign trade enterprises and SMEs. It affects employment." He Wei said that this year is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". Income distribution reform and structural adjustment are a major task. However, at present, the promotion is relatively small, and should return to this major task next year. . Zheng Xinli, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said: "One of the most important messages conveyed at the two sessions earlier this year is to change the economic development mode during the 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan' period. However, due to inflation, the first three quarters we actually Putting the main focus on suppressing inflation, putting in tightening monetary policy and raising the deposit reserve ratio. So far, we have not seen major effective measures in transforming economic development, and we have not seen the transformation of economic development. The happy results achieved on the main line.” Zheng Xinli said that inflation should be resolved by adjusting the structure and increasing the effective supply, because this inflationary food and housing factor has driven the CPI by 90%. How to achieve a steady decline in inflation and steady economic growth while transforming the development mode? Zheng Xinli said that by optimizing the structure, transforming the mode of economic development, combining fiscal and monetary policies, and exerting the role of fiscal policy, the social funds will be guided through various means such as loans, interest subsidies, capital subsidies, tax cuts, and incentives. Transforming the way of economic development and the direction of need, leading to the development of strategic emerging industries, leading to the development of the tertiary industry, leading to agricultural modernization, and guiding overseas investment. "In this way, we can achieve both the suppression of inflation, the diversification of the liquidity of the banks, and the transformation of the development mode, and the goal of double-edged. So from the fourth quarter, until next year, we must put the macro economy as soon as possible. The focus of management has shifted back to the main line of transforming the mode of economic development.” He Wei proposed three suggestions. One is that the monetary policy in 2012 should serve the real economy, not the austerity; the second is to increase the reform of income distribution. Effectively increase the income of residents and start domestic demand; the third is structural tax cuts, and increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises. Huang Suujian said that in the future, the focus of economic policy should be adjusted from controlling inflation to controlling inflation and stabilizing growth.  

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