CPI rose 2.6% last year, lower than the regulatory target

On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that in December 2013, the national consumer price level rose by 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, the city rose 2.5%, the rural rose 2.5%; food prices rose 4.1%, non-food prices rose 1.7%; consumer prices rose 2.2%, service prices rose 3.3%.

For the whole year of 2013, the national consumer price level rose by 2.6% over the previous year, lower than the 3.5% regulation target. In 2012 and 2011, the target was 4.0%.

Since 2013, CPI has increased by 2.0% year-on-year in January, CPI rose by 3.2% in February, CPI increased by 2.1% in March, CPI rose by 2.4% in April, and CPI rose by 2.1% in May, June and July. CPI both rose 2.7% year-on-year, CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in August, CPI rose 3.1% in September, CPI rose 3.2% in October, and CPI rose 3.0% in November, both below the 3.5% target.

According to CITIC Jiantou, inflation in December, from the perspective of food prices, the “Agricultural Wholesale Price Index” issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and the “Wholesale Price Index of Vegetable Basket Products” showed that the index rose due to seasonal factors, but due to Last year, the base was not low, so the year-on-year increase will not be too high. Since the north is warm winter this year, the food price increase factor in December mainly comes from food, meat and vegetables. Although they are all rising, the increase is milder.

From the perspective of non-food prices, the global economic recovery, international capital risk appetite continues to rise, and the prices of bulk commodities will remain depressed. The probability of a shocking price increase is greater during the year, and the rebound in the second half is more obvious. This year's inflation high point has appeared in October as expected. In November and December, the CPI has gradually declined slightly. The moderate inflation for the whole year is around 2.7%. In 2014, the hikes were higher than 2013 and 2012, but considering the medium-speed operation of economic growth, the money supply is in a deceleration range, the US dollar's strength to suppress large-price performance, the weak recovery of the pig cycle, and the stable grain and oil prices will make inflation a strong end. It is not advisable to overestimate inflationary pressures in 2014. The inflation level in 2014 is expected to be the same as in 2013, about 2.7%. In terms of quarterly distribution, the second quarter is the CPI high.

For the trend of prices in 2014, many institutions and experts said that the year-on-year increase in CPI is expected to be slightly larger than that in 2013, and inflation is worthy of vigilance.

Aerospace Securities believes that the 2014 CPI is likely to rebound slightly from 2013, but since the CPI is likely to be lower than expected in December last year, the 2014 CPI recovery is likely to be lower than expected. If the CPI increase in December was significantly lower than market expectations, there will be some uncertainty as to whether the CPI will rebound in 2014 compared with 2013.

Lian Ping, chief economics of Bank of Communications, pointed out that from the perspective of China's price operation cycle, prices have entered the beginning of a new round of rising cycles in 2013, and 2014 will be the second year of the price increase cycle. According to experience, the high price point often appears in the second year of the rise. Considering that there are still a series of pressures to push the price increase in the current economic operation, it is expected that the CPI year-on-year increase in 2014 will be slightly larger than that in 2013. The initial estimate is About 3%.

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