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Under the influence of the S&P's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and the fear of losing 3A rating in France, the recent domestic commodity futures have panic selling pressure. As a financial property, the metal futures are more obvious, but with the sharp decline in the past few days, The market sentiment gradually eased, and the futures price also began to rebound. In terms of varieties: Copper: In the second half of the year, copper ore production materials continued to be affected by factors such as strikes and the decline in copper grades. On the demand side, although the European and American debt crisis triggered concerns about weak global copper demand, China's strong copper demand is expected to offset this concern to some extent. From the construction of affordable housing and wire and cable in the second half of China, we infer that there is a strong demand for replenishment in the future. Therefore, in general, the copper market is expected to maintain a short supply in the second half of the year. China's urbanization construction still needs to dominate the demand for copper, but it also needs to pay attention to the news from the macro side. In operation, it is recommended to adopt a bargain-hunting strategy and pay attention to the support of 65,000 lines in the short term. Aluminium: In the second half of the year, China's energy-saving and emission-reduction policies still cause large-scale aluminum enterprises to face a situation of short supply, and the price of aluminum has been under the obvious cost support. The future cost increase factor will curb the downward space of domestic aluminum prices, while the fundamentals are the core driving force to push prices upward. Under the short-term cost increase, the end of the destocking, the long-term capacity expansion and other multiple favorable resonances, we are still optimistic about the medium and long-term trend of domestic aluminum prices, the low-lying effect of aluminum is expected to continue to be reflected. In operation, it is recommended to adopt a bargain-hunting strategy and short-term attention to the support of 17,000. Zinc: Global manufacturing will gradually recover in the second half of the year, with auto production rising due to increased production in China and the impact of the Japanese auto industry on the earthquake, which has led to an increase in demand for zinc. The start of China's affordable housing will also support the demand for zinc. Therefore, we expect zinc prices to fluctuate upwards, which is expected to exceed the April high. Investors are advised to adopt a bargain-hunting strategy in the second half of the year, paying attention to the pressure of Lun Zinc 2550-2600 USD. The appropriate price of Shanghai Zinc Jiacang is 17,150 yuan/ton, 17,800 yuan/ton, 18,500 yuan/ton and 19,500 yuan/ton. If it falls below the previous bottom of 15,690 yuan / ton, the stop loss will leave. Lead: In the second half of the year, domestic lead-acid battery enterprises will resume their work. Among them, August-October is the traditional peak season for consumption. However, due to the consolidation of the lead battery industry, the peak consumption season may be delayed by one or two months. The increase in vehicle production and possession will continue to promote lead consumption. As the global economy stabilizes and improves, we expect lead prices to rise gradually in the second half of the year, but it is difficult to exceed $3,000. Investors are advised to adopt a bargain-hunting strategy in the second half of the year, paying attention to the pressure of 2,900 US dollars. The appropriate price of Shanghai lead plus warehouse is 17,000 yuan / ton, 17,500 yuan / ton, 18,000 yuan / ton and 18,500 yuan / ton. If it falls below the previous wave of 15,200 yuan / ton, the stop loss will leave. Steel: The inflation situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year, and the market will face a better macro environment. The progress of the construction of affordable housing will be accelerated in the third quarter. According to the data, from January to July this year, the construction of urban affordable housing and shantytowns has started to build 7.218 million sets, with a operating rate of 72% (excluding the Tibet Autonomous Region). At the end of June, 56.6% of the nationwide affordable housing operating rate has not been improved. Steel production is difficult to increase significantly. The data shows that the average daily output of crude steel in July was 1,912,900 tons, compared with 1.998 million tons in June, a significant decrease of 0.7%. This is the biggest decline this year, basically returning to February this year. The average daily output of crude steel has improved the supply and demand situation. In addition, raw material prices are firm, and cost support will appear in the market outlook. However, in the complex macro environment, Shanghai Steel may fall into range volatility in the third quarter, but in the fourth quarter, Shanghai Steel is expected to expand its gains in the year before the reserve.
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