[Macroeconomics] Zhang Xiaoqiang: The dollar continues to depreciate to increase inflationary pressures in developing countries

On the morning of September 14, the fifth "Summer Davos" Forum opened in Dalian. After the opening ceremony, Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, accepted interviews with media reporters on hot topics such as the current economic situation, China's response to rising prices, and emerging strategic industrial planning. Reporter: In the speech of the Prime Minister, the debt crisis in Europe and America is very worrying. What kind of signal does the Prime Minister use to convey to the outside world through his speech at this world-class forum? Zhang Xiaoqiang: The Prime Minister spoke very well. I am very impressed by the fact that he emphasized confidence, responsibility, cooperation, and elaborated separately. This is the signal that the Prime Minister conveyed on behalf of the Chinese government and the Chinese people to the rest of the world. Be confident, but take responsibility. As the largest developing country, China is a responsible big country. While doing a good job of the Chinese economy, it actively participates in the efforts of the international community, and works together to strengthen cooperation. Because different countries have different situations, different policy measures are needed, but the coordination of macroeconomic policies, the reform of the international financial system, etc., need to strengthen cooperation. Reporter: The economic situation in Europe and the United States is still unclear. Do you think there will be a so-called "secondary recession"? Zhang Xiaoqiang: Many experts, entrepreneurs, including government officials are paying attention to whether there will be a "double dip" or a recession. It should be said that the Prime Minister’s speech just pointed out such a direction: I hope that through the joint efforts of the international community, the recovery of the international economy will return to the normal track. Judging from the current situation, the Prime Minister just said that the United States is currently experiencing a decline in the rating of the national debt and a huge deficit, but the ability to innovate in science and technology is strong and the overall foundation is good. If the policy is appropriate, it is conditional to resume recovery. The euro zone or the EU countries are now facing a sovereign debt crisis. They have not fully passed and may develop. On the other hand, the development of the countries in the euro zone is not exactly the same. For example, Germany, the country with the highest economic strength in the euro zone, is relatively strong. Moreover, from the perspective of the euro zone or the EU countries, it is still mainly a sovereign debt crisis. The financial risks are large and there are many uncertain factors. However, some enterprises in the country are pioneering and enterprising. The overall situation of the business community should be said to be stable. If the government's policy measures are right and work together with the company, the euro zone is still likely to restore the momentum of the past. Reporter: So what is your overall judgment on the “second recession”? Zhang Xiaoqiang: From my personal point of view, I believe that the international community can avoid "double dip" by increasing coordination and joint efforts and taking appropriate measures. Reporter: You just mentioned the issue of the United States. Everyone is now more concerned about QE3 (the third quantitative easing), will it be launched? If it is launched, what impact will it have on China? Especially in the current situation of high prices? Zhang Xiaoqiang: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently announced that the US low interest rate will remain at least until 2013. Recently, everyone is very concerned about whether the Fed will launch QE3 in the near future. But so far, the Fed has not announced the launch of QE3. So, we can only make one assumption now. After the launch of QE2, everyone did see the excess liquidity it caused. Everyone saw that the United States played a role in solving its own economic difficulties by issuing additional currency. However, as a major issuer of the international reserve currency, the United States has increased global liquidity and increased global inflationary pressures. This is what we have seen objectively since QE2. Therefore, if the United States continues to implement QE3, it will cause further inflationary pressure on the world. At the opening ceremony today, Premier Wen Jiabao has already said that the current inflation problem is much more stressful for many countries, whether it is emerging economies or developed countries, and of course China. So we said that we must prioritize the management of inflation expectations. If the dollar depreciates further, because the world's major commodities are basically denominated in US dollars, the price of bulk commodities will rise in the medium term, which will increase the pressure on imported inflation in developing countries including China. In addition, as the issuing country of the world's major reserve currency, this practice will reduce the actual purchasing power of the assets of countries holding US Treasury bonds. These are all things that require a high degree of attention.
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