Monetary policy is more cautious

Recently, the central bank's open market operation has not only restarted the three-year central bank bill that has been suspended for nearly one month, but also the interest rate of the central bank bills issued last week has risen across the board, causing high concern in the industry.   Li Yiping, a professor at the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, and Zhang Hongfeng, director of the Economic Research Institute of Shandong University of Economics and the special commentator of the newspaper, said in an interview with the Economic Herald on the 21st that the central bank will be more cautious about raising interest rates and the possibility of raising interest rates will be further reduced. . "No matter what kind of measures the central government takes, the most important thing at the moment is to ensure that the stock market does not collapse. The next step is to make the central bank more cautious." Zhang Hongfeng told the reporter. Li Yiping suggested that the current market mechanism should be hoped to solve the problem through market regulation. The central bank has been on the ice sheet. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI index in July increased by 6.5% year-on-year, setting a new high in nearly 37 months. However, due to the deepening of the European and American debt crisis, the international financial market was turbulent, and the domestic market was not spared. Most market participants Think that the current central bank monetary policy is transferred to the observation period. "The current domestic situation is very complicated. The stock market has repeatedly fallen. Whether it will continue to adopt a tight monetary policy, the central bank will be more cautious." Zhang Hongfeng analyzed that from the international environmental perspective, the US exchange rate showed a downward trend, the dollar weakened and the renminbi appreciated. If the monetary policy orientation adopted by the central bank is too obvious, it may not only be negative for the domestic situation, but may also affect the inflow and outflow of international capital. Zhang Hongfeng believes that open market operations have a stronger regulation of liquidity, but the impact on the stock market is relatively small. "China's current stock market and inflation are not synchronized. According to common sense, when inflation occurs, the profits of enterprises should increase, and the stock market should produce positive. But this is not the case at present. On the contrary, the stock market is bleak. The situation is so complicated, which one to adopt? Policy central banks will be cautious," she said. Some analysts said that it is expected that the central bank will use more open market operations for regulation in the future. Zhang Hongfeng said that after fully considering the impact on the international and domestic, the central bank may have new options in terms of monetary policy tools. The possibility of raising interest rates is further reduced. In Zhang Hongfeng's view, the current situation is so complicated that some phenomena seem completely unreasonable. "If the current inflation rate, the central bank policy should be to raise interest rates, but the reality is far more complicated than imagined." She further analysis that in the case of inflation, the stock market situation should be good. If the stock market situation is very good, the central bank can use the means of raising interest rates to regulate the currency. However, in the current inflation situation, the stock market has continued to weaken. The current stock market situation is particularly severe. The stock markets of neighboring countries are also experiencing a sharp decline. If the central bank still does not give support to investors, it still needs to raise interest rates further, and the stock market may face Crash danger. "In this case, the interest rate hike will be more cautious than before." "After all, the interest rate hike is very sensitive. Every round of interest rate hike has a great impact on the stock market. The current stock markets in neighboring countries are falling, and China's stock market is low. It is still difficult to maintain the 2,500 points. Regardless of the measures taken by the central government, the most important thing at present is to ensure that the stock market does not collapse. What kind of monetary policy will be subject to this restriction." Zhang Hongfeng said. Li Yiping believes that the central bank’s cautious rate hike in the short term is because of fears that the economy will “double dip”. “The central government originally relied on increasing the money supply to support the economic development. But now because of a series of monetary adjustment policies such as interest rate hikes to tighten liquidity, many economic entities are affected, and the economic growth rate is declining. In the context of advocating the prevention of a 'hard landing' of the economy, interest rates will no longer be raised, although 'hard landing' is not necessarily a bad thing," he said. Regulation should be "combination boxing" The central bank recently mentioned many times that it should comprehensively use tools such as interest rates, exchange rates, open market operations, and deposit reserves. "It is also not ruled out that the central bank will adopt a policy of raising the deposit reserve ratio. The current pressure for price increases is still very large, largely due to the excessive currency in circulation and the liquidity is too strong. The increase in the deposit reserve ratio can be reduced. Liquidity. But at present, the combination is too strong. At a certain stage of several major tools, they are only replaced by each other, and they can not be used in a multi-pronged manner." Zhang Hongfeng explained. She believes that this round of regulation faces many difficult problems. In addition to monetary policy, fiscal policy should also play an active role. At the same time, government supervision should also participate in macroeconomic regulation and control, and the direct administrative means of the government will play a certain role. A variety of control measures should be used in combination. "Policy, transfer payment and other policies can all be involved. Especially for the structural contradictions faced by China, we should increase the intensity of poverty subsidies, give full play to the role of transfer payments, and give financial support to backward regions. This is in the scope of macroeconomic regulation and control.” Li Yiping suggested that in the face of the current complex economic situation, it should be hoped that the market mechanism will solve problems through market regulation. "Under market economy conditions, the market's problems should be solved by the market itself. Targeted macro-control policies are short-term means, and only 'press the gourd,' it is difficult to solve the problem fundamentally."

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