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The business club reported on July 6 that in the first half of the year, the price and quantity of nitrogen fertilizer industry rose, driving the performance of related companies to improve. Analysts believe that the second quarter may be the high point of performance during the year, and May may be the second quarter's performance high. At present, the price of nitrogenous fertilizers is falling, the profitability of enterprises is being squeezed, and a large amount of new production capacity will be released in the future. The trend of the industry is difficult to be optimistic.
In the first half of the year, according to the introduction of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, in the first half of 2012, the raw materials purchased by compound fertilizer companies were advanced, and the ratio of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers and secondary processed nitrogen fertilizers increased compared with previous years; the state increased agricultural subsidies and farmers The increase in enthusiasm for the use of fertilizers and the increase in industrial use have led to a situation in which the production and sales boomed and product prices rebounded in the first half of 2012.
Since March, the domestic market price of urea has mainly risen steadily. Urea prices in North China and East China increased from 2,150 yuan/ton in early March to 2,450 yuan/ton in early May. CITIC Securities analyst said that due to dealers at the end of last year during the period of light storage of the domestic urea market outlook is expected to be poor, less stocking, resulting in the shortage of urea supply during the spring plowing market, prices soared. After the return of agriculture to the north in the northern region, the industrial compound fertilizer plant began to purchase to meet the demand for fertilizer in the summer, and the international urea price continued to rise during the same period, pushing up the price increase forecast.
On May 7, the "Stabilize Urea Market Symposium" was held in Beijing. Since then, urea prices have begun to show a downward trend. Business Club data showed that the price of urea at the end of June was 2,193 yuan/ton.
According to the performance forecast disclosed by the relevant listed companies, the first half year performance increased year-on-year. For example, Huilong shares expects net profit for the first half of the year to increase by 0%-10%. In the first quarter of this year, the company's performance dropped by 51.9% year-on-year. Jianfeng Chemicals expects to lose money in the first half of the year and achieve a net profit of about 20 million yuan.
The trend is not optimistic in the second half of the current, urea prices began to fall, coupled with a large number of new capacity to suppress the top, the industry trend in the second half is not optimistic.
Business community analyst Zhang Ming believes that the company's profit margin in the third quarter is bound to decrease in comparison, the company's cost line is about 1900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price of the market price has dropped to 2000-2030 yuan / ton.
According to data from China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, total urea consumption is expected to reach 52 million tons in 2012, and production capacity will continue to increase. According to the latest statistics, 18 new synthetic ammonia and urea projects will be put into production in China in 2012, with a total production capacity of 5.64 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 8.73 million tons of urea. Although some outdated production capacity has also been eliminated in recent years, the pressure on the overcapacity in the domestic nitrogen fertilizer industry is still increasing.
CITIC Securities analysts said that domestic urea will usher in a period of concentrated production in the second half of the year. It is expected that approximately 3 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 5 million tons of urea will be put into trial production, which will have a greater impact on the supply and demand of domestic nitrogen fertilizers. At the same time, low-cost new production capacity, such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, may have an impact on industry costs and product prices.
On the export side, this year, the country will restrict exports by adding off-season export tariffs on products such as binary fertilizers and small-packed urea. It is expected that the export of nitrogen fertilizer off-season this year will be less than last year, and the impact on the domestic market price will be reduced.
In the first half of the year, according to the introduction of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, in the first half of 2012, the raw materials purchased by compound fertilizer companies were advanced, and the ratio of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers and secondary processed nitrogen fertilizers increased compared with previous years; the state increased agricultural subsidies and farmers The increase in enthusiasm for the use of fertilizers and the increase in industrial use have led to a situation in which the production and sales boomed and product prices rebounded in the first half of 2012.
Since March, the domestic market price of urea has mainly risen steadily. Urea prices in North China and East China increased from 2,150 yuan/ton in early March to 2,450 yuan/ton in early May. CITIC Securities analyst said that due to dealers at the end of last year during the period of light storage of the domestic urea market outlook is expected to be poor, less stocking, resulting in the shortage of urea supply during the spring plowing market, prices soared. After the return of agriculture to the north in the northern region, the industrial compound fertilizer plant began to purchase to meet the demand for fertilizer in the summer, and the international urea price continued to rise during the same period, pushing up the price increase forecast.
On May 7, the "Stabilize Urea Market Symposium" was held in Beijing. Since then, urea prices have begun to show a downward trend. Business Club data showed that the price of urea at the end of June was 2,193 yuan/ton.
According to the performance forecast disclosed by the relevant listed companies, the first half year performance increased year-on-year. For example, Huilong shares expects net profit for the first half of the year to increase by 0%-10%. In the first quarter of this year, the company's performance dropped by 51.9% year-on-year. Jianfeng Chemicals expects to lose money in the first half of the year and achieve a net profit of about 20 million yuan.
The trend is not optimistic in the second half of the current, urea prices began to fall, coupled with a large number of new capacity to suppress the top, the industry trend in the second half is not optimistic.
Business community analyst Zhang Ming believes that the company's profit margin in the third quarter is bound to decrease in comparison, the company's cost line is about 1900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price of the market price has dropped to 2000-2030 yuan / ton.
According to data from China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, total urea consumption is expected to reach 52 million tons in 2012, and production capacity will continue to increase. According to the latest statistics, 18 new synthetic ammonia and urea projects will be put into production in China in 2012, with a total production capacity of 5.64 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 8.73 million tons of urea. Although some outdated production capacity has also been eliminated in recent years, the pressure on the overcapacity in the domestic nitrogen fertilizer industry is still increasing.
CITIC Securities analysts said that domestic urea will usher in a period of concentrated production in the second half of the year. It is expected that approximately 3 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 5 million tons of urea will be put into trial production, which will have a greater impact on the supply and demand of domestic nitrogen fertilizers. At the same time, low-cost new production capacity, such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, may have an impact on industry costs and product prices.
On the export side, this year, the country will restrict exports by adding off-season export tariffs on products such as binary fertilizers and small-packed urea. It is expected that the export of nitrogen fertilizer off-season this year will be less than last year, and the impact on the domestic market price will be reduced.
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