Overview of the steel industry news on December 30

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[Material News]

Next year, the coal-to-steel de-capacity index will increase by one percent, and the capacity will be expanded to enter the critical period.

On the basis of the excessive completion of the coal-to-steel solving excess capacity task this year, the capacity will be expanded in 2017. The "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned that in 2017, the coal and steel industry's de-capacity indicators will increase by more than 10%, while the de-capacity will be extended to industries such as cement, glass, electrolytic aluminum and ships. The industry believes that while de-capacity is added, the debt resolution will enter the stage of tackling the hardship, and the de-levering idea of ​​“grasping the best and breaking the bad” has already begun to appear.

Shanxi Province will build six hundred million tons of coal enterprises

The recently issued "Thirteen Five-Year" Comprehensive Energy Development Plan of Shanxi Province pointed out that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the province will focus on the construction of coal bases, coal-fired power bases, modern coal chemical, coal-bed methane and new energy bases. Research and exploration of sub-bases, coal divisions to build a world-class, domestically led large coal group companies, by 2020, the province's coal mines are controlled within 900, the average single well scale strives to reach 1.8 million tons / year.

Coking coal's recent trend appears to continue to increase prices in some regions

Although the price of downstream coke prices continues to fall in the near future, the price of coking coal is relatively strong. On the 29th, the industry reported that some coal companies will continue to raise prices from January 1 next year. Researchers in the metallurgical coal industry told China Securities Network that the recent coking coal market has been divided.

2017 State-owned enterprise reform: the tide of mergers and acquisitions is likely to come to the field of steel and coal

According to the country's industrial concentration forecast for severely surplus industries, the industries most likely to be reorganized and merged by central enterprises in 2017 are coal, construction and shipbuilding. In addition, Wang Wei suggested that attention should be paid to the reorganization of local SOEs, and it is likely that they will be more frequent and active. In fact, the domestic economic situation is also forcing the pace of reform of state-owned enterprises to accelerate. "There are many enterprises that can't sustain it, and they must rely on central enterprises to take over." Wang Wei, head of the special working group of the SASAC Research Center, believes that the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2017 is expected. Conduct large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the norms, actively explore mixed ownership, strengthen core competitiveness, and give full play to the vitality and influence of state-owned enterprises.

Coal steel to de-capacity will usher in financial “timely rain”

Recently, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Opinions on the Coal Industry to Resolve the Problem of Financial Debt and Debt of Excess Capacity" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"), and made issues on the credit industry and debts in the coal industry in resolving excess work. The regulation put forward a number of measures to increase financial support for mergers and acquisitions of coal enterprises, and strict control of illegal new coal production capacity. It can be said that the coal industry has eaten a piece of financial support in resolving excess capacity. Centering pills."

The steel mill will still slightly reverberate the materials in the warehouse.

In January, the domestic railway and highway transportation capacity is tightening. Many coal mines, iron ore and scrap steel suppliers will have a holiday in advance in the middle of the year, and domestic resource supply will be reduced. Imported ore shipments will also be affected by seasonal factors. From the demand point of view, the current inventory level of steel mills is not high. In the case of considerable profits, many steel mills still need to replenish stocks in the short term. In addition, the increase in lending in January and the continued depreciation of the renminbi are still strong support for raw material prices. It is expected that the domestic raw material market will be mainly fluctuated by a small fluctuation in January 2017.

[Steel price trend]

Hebei suddenly limited production, steel billets fell 60, steel prices are difficult to "act"

New Year's Day is approaching, the festive atmosphere is getting stronger, the downstream purchases have been weakened, and the demand growth has been embarrassing. However, in terms of environmental protection, Hebei Province has restarted heavy-duty weather emergency response, and supply will be tightened by pine. Overall analysis, the steel market performance is still difficult to get rid of the increasingly bleak, the operation is more cautious.

The rise in steel prices still exists in historical space?

Although the prices of steel and smelting raw materials are now large, they still have a certain gap from their historical highs. For example, the high-grade imported iron ore price has been close to 200 US dollars, and the domestic rebar price has reached 4,000 yuan "RMB." Therefore, it can be said that the prices of steel and black series products have so far remained a reasonable return to the previous low price. It is also in this sense that we have seen the price of steel and black series of commodities, and there is still a cyclical rising historical space. Near the end of the year, the national steel price rebounded after a sharp rise in the round, which is normal. If the steel price correction is larger, the fall time will be longer, which will provide more room for steel prices in the new year, which will make it possible for steel prices to see higher prices in 2017.

Supply and reform, and then go deep into the steel market

From the downstream point of view, the keynote and loose fiscal policy proposed by the state in 2017 means that PPP projects will maintain rapid development, and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain rapid growth, which is still the mainstay of demand. The real estate market is affected by policy tightening and the growth rate will slow down. On the whole, the supply and demand for steel will decrease in 2017, and the thread futures are expected to emerge from the slow growth of the “slow cow” market.

Steel prices are rising again? See this article to know!

Next year, supply-side reform will continue to advance, and demand-side infrastructure will maintain steady growth. Although real estate growth has generally declined, real economic growth has declined slightly and inflation has continued to rise, but the overall macroeconomics has remained good, and liquidity contraction risks need to be cautious. On the whole, next spring, with the arrival of the industry's traditional demand peak season in March and April, and the deepening of the supply-side reform, the market may repeat the "outbreak" of this year's drama, "good market" may be expected.

Pre-judgment of various steel products next week (1.03-1.06)

Period snail: In the first four days of this week, the main 1705 contract was strong and weak, wide and shocked. Technically, on the daily chart, the MACD indicator's fast line fell below the 0-axis, the green column contracted; CCI rebounded to -100 or more, and then there were signs of a downward turn; the ROC indicator continued to run downward; RSI The divergence is carried out; the price is running close to the lower rail position of BOLL, between the 60-day moving average and the 40-day moving average, the support interval is 2850-2880, and the pressure interval is 3080-3180. From a technical point of view, the current turbulent market, there is no bottoming signal, the trend is still bearish, the operation, the main rallies.

January steel price trend warning: demand shrinks and weak down

Domestic steel prices will face greater downward pressure in January. First, the current macro environment has changed, the upper level has weakened the economic growth rate, real estate regulation and control has continued to strengthen, and the medium and long-term demand side has become weaker. Second, the current time and weather are not good for sales. The actual sales time in January is about 10 days, then Demand will enter a dormant period of more than a month; third, social inventories have risen for six consecutive weeks, and the cumulative inventory speed exceeds expectations; fourth, steel futures are heavily discounted, and spot prices will be suppressed. Therefore, it is expected that the overall domestic steel prices in January will show a steady decline and a weak downward trend.

Looking at the price trend of construction steel before and after the Spring Festival from the perspective of funds

At the end of the year, manufacturers are facing the pressure of capital repayment. Steel mills mostly withdraw funds from the way of moving the factory warehouse to the dealers. Traders are no longer carrying out the fund-raising business. For example, the current funding is 1 month, and the New Year is over. The estimated return of funds is delayed until March, further restricting terminal demand. On the whole, December and January are the off-season of traditional production and sales. In addition, the manufacturers are facing the pressure of returning funds at the end of the year. The tight capital will definitely affect the market transactions. In the short term, the pressure on the steel market mainly depends on the supply and demand game and the degree of financial tension. For the outlook of the market, the author believes that the price of construction steel before and after the Spring Festival is mainly weak.

[Steel Factory News]

Small and medium-sized steel enterprises blast furnace operating rate rebound

Among the 100 small and medium-sized enterprises surveyed by the Yunshang platform, 47 companies have carried out blast furnace overhaul (including production and furnace equipment, the same below), and a total of 81 blast furnaces have been repaired, which is 19 less than last week (3 this week) The blast furnace was newly overhauled and 22 blast furnaces resumed production. The volume of the blast furnace was 57,792 cubic meters, which was 14,910 cubic meters less than last week. The operating rate of the slabs of 100 small and medium-sized enterprises was 83.76%, up 4.18 percentage points over the previous period.

Chongqing received 600 million yuan debt relief and debt transfer

Chongqing (601005), which is in the midst of a major unresolved suspension period, came to the news on the evening of December 29, according to the “Debt Waiver Agreement” signed by the company and Chongqing Changshou District Urban and Rural Development (Group) Co., Ltd. on September 30. The large state-owned enterprises that attracted investment in the region have made outstanding contributions to the local economic development. In addition, the current financial difficulties of the company are unable to repay the debts of the urban and rural development company. After applying to the company, the company agreed to exempt the company from 450 million yuan. debt.

Baowu reorganization ended with a reshaping of the global industrial structure

The most direct impact of the merger of Baowu is the change in the market competition pattern. "The domestic industry has long existed in the pattern of "Northern Strong South" and "Northern Steel South Transportation". The merger of Baowu is breaking and reshaping the market structure."

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei enterprises reached 11 “energy saving and emission reduction” cooperation

Tianjin Tiantie Metallurgical Group Co., Ltd. and Beijing Helong Optimization Technology Co., Ltd. signed the agreement for the development of precise combustion control technology for Tiantie hot rolling furnace; Tianjin Tengyuan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. and Hebei Shengteui Engineering Design Co., Ltd. Agreement on the Integration and Application of Industrial Pickling Waste Treatment Technology; Tianjin Yinlong Prestressed Material Co., Ltd. and Beijing Zhengling North Technology Co., Ltd. signed the “Dual-stage Coupling Deep Treatment and Resource Utilization Demonstration of Typical Enterprise Pickling Wastewater” Wait.

In 2017, the capacity will go into a tough period to effectively improve the relationship between supply and demand.

In terms of capacity, the country is watching the pace of action in Hebei Province. In less than ten days after the end of the Central Economic Work Conference, Hebei Province once again announced the task of de-capacity in 2017. The announcement shows that in 2017, Hebei Province will reduce the ironmaking capacity by 17.14 million tons and steelmaking capacity in 1986. Ten thousand tons, which is increased by 900,000 tons and 4.24 million tons respectively compared with their previous target tasks. This also shows that Hebei, as a major steel-producing province in the country, will continue to follow the footsteps of the central government and increase The intensity of de-capacity.

Going to the production capacity in the twists and turns, the market clearing is the premise of becoming bigger and stronger.

Driven by multiple factors such as de-capacity, prices in 2016 experienced three rounds of increase. In the first half of this year, the market experienced a mountain bike-like market. The price surged after the Spring Festival, and it continued to rise for two months, with an increase of more than 1,000 yuan/ton. Then there was a cliff-like decline. In May, the decline was almost over 1,000 yuan/ton. Early lows. In the second half of the year, the market maintained steady growth. After the price continued to rise in the first two months of the second half of the year, it maintained a steady state for two months. From October onwards, it resumed its upward trend.

2016 China suffered from trade friction case 117 related to other industries

Liu Chao, deputy director of the Legal Affairs Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that in 2016, the CCPIT undertook 24 cases of organization response, involving nearly $5 billion, and the number of cases and the amount involved were 20% and 36% respectively. The number of organizational response cases accounts for about one-third of the number of effective organization responses. In particular, the organization co-organized 14 cases involving the US stainless steel double-reverse case and the Canadian steel component double-counter case, involving a total amount of about 3.1 billion US dollars. Organizations respond to cases and regions involving 11 major countries and regions such as the United States, the European Union, Brazil, Canada, etc.; industries involved, chemical, mechanical and electrical, agricultural products and other industries; types involving anti-dumping, countervailing, safeguards, technical barriers, tariff barriers And other major types.

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