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The introduction of the coal price index did not play a decisive role in suppressing the price of coal at a high temperature.
"Today's coal is simply a price a day. We are not picking up the 'cash on delivery' list at the moment." Han Lijun, a salesperson of Shaanxi Shenfu Coal Transportation and Marketing Service Company, is arrogant.
Since October, China’s coal prices have risen all the way. According to the statistics of China's coal price network, the coal price per ton in North China increased by 10~30 yuan in October, and the average unit price of coal in the southwest and central and southern regions reached 40 yuan.
At the same time, coal stocks in the stock market maintained the same pace as the spot market, rising almost at the same time, coal stocks rose more than 50% on average, the hot coal market was dubbed "coal super crazy."
At the same time as the "super coal madness", the first national-level coal price index system compiled by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index, was put into trial operation on October 13. The index was selected in the first batch. 149 companies as data collection units, with 7 days as the reporting period.
To what extent can the price index guide coal prices, and what is the role of China's unimproved coal price system? There are many opinions in the industry, and there is no consensus.
Unconventional rise
According to Han Lijun, the coal prices in the Shenmu area are all rising. “The market is now very good and the coal price will continue to rise.â€
The rising demand for coal during the peak season is an objective factor. Li Yongsheng, an analyst at the Mid-term Futures Research Institute, believes that the hoarding of traders, the narrow sales channels of coal, and the difficulty of transportation are important reasons for pushing up coal prices.
Zhang Yan, who has been engaged in coal trading for a long time in Tianjin Port, started to burn coal in August, waiting for the price increase at the end of the year. He only bought 10,000 tons for financial reasons.
From the perspective of the coal market, the current coal market is basically balanced in supply and demand and does not have the conditions for a sharp rise.
Li Yongsheng analyzed: "The imperfect construction of China's coal market system, narrow sales channels, coal demanders can not directly buy coal, so that the middle traders can take advantage of."
In the process of rising coal prices, hot money is also indispensable. Seasonal factors and the so-called “Millennium Extreme Cold†climate have also been used by some coal traders and hot money as a tool to push up coal prices.
Zhang Yulin, research director of the China Investment Consulting Industry Research Center, said in an interview with the reporter of China Economics and Informatization: "Some forces are creating an atmosphere in the market that is conducive to the rise in coal prices."
In addition, the increase in coal transportation costs has also boosted coal prices. “The relatively low cost of coal transportation by train is controlled by a few people, and the price has been disguised.†Li Yongsheng said that this is an important reason for traders to choose to transport coal. Therefore, it is not surprising that recent news about coal traffic jams on highways is frequently reported in newspapers.
In the Yulin Shenfu area of ​​Shaanxi Province, coal users across the country have almost formed a situation of grabbing coal. “The coal transportation vehicles are concentrated in the Shenmu and Fugu areas that enter Yulin. The traffic jams are large. No matter the size of the large and small coal mines, there are more than 100 vehicles in the queue. The loading must be queued, and the number of vehicles will be more than three days, resulting in a large freight rate. The rise has increased the cost of using coal." Han Lijun said that after 11 years, the freight rate rose by about 50 yuan / ton.
Price index is difficult to use effectively
As an important resource for the country's economic life, the coal price trend not only affects the operation of the coal industry, but also plays a decisive role in macroeconomic development.
The purpose of the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index is to guide coal prices and reflect the level of China's coal prices and its changing trends. The National Development and Reform Commission said that the move aims to promote the reform of the coal market and improve the coal market system.
Although China's coal market has gradually established a price mechanism based on market formation prices after years of reform and development, the pricing mechanism of the coal market is not perfect. "The current release of coal prices does not mean that coal price reform has been completed, and the formation mechanism and regulation mechanism of coal prices are far from being established." Coal industry analyst Song Liang said.
Qian Pingfan, director of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that with the completion of the National Coal Trading Center, the price index of the coal industry will become the price vane of the industry. "This is conducive to China's formation of a relatively fixed and perfect coal trading model, which will help China to grasp the right to speak in the international coal market."
However, according to an interview conducted by China Economics and Informatization, it was found that among the experts in the industry, coal companies and traders who are in the coal trading line did not agree.
Han Lijun bluntly said: "Our daily coal trading does not refer to the coal price index at all." In fact, there are not a few coal traders who hold the same view.
"For coal traders, the thermal coal price index is a summary of the market price performance in the past week, with a lag, it is difficult to affect their real-time transactions, they pay more attention to the spot price of coal." Coal industry Senior analyst Hu Yu told reporters.
"The current coal pricing system is still in the hands of a few people, and the market price has not really formed." Li Yongsheng said. With the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction and the integration of coal resources promoted by the state, the advantages will be more concentrated to large enterprises, coal will still be a monopoly industry, and prices still have room for further upward movement.
“In fact, the coal price index is also available in various ports, but it is not recognized by coal companies and traders.†For the soaring coal price, Li Yongsheng suggested that the country needs to fundamentally accelerate the construction of the coal market system, increase supply channels, and open coal. Monopolize the market.
Coal futures on the road?
The rise and fall of coal prices has a huge impact on the development of downstream enterprises, especially the power industry. At present, while the rapid development of China's economy, the contradiction between "market coal" and "planned electricity" has become increasingly prominent. Industry experts believe that traditional energy trading methods have been unable to provide accurate information to the market and affect the healthy development of the market.
China's coal production accounts for more than 40% of global coal production and is the world's largest coal consumer. Whether considering the long-term development of the coal industry or the important role of coal for economic development, it is increasingly important that coal prices are stable and reasonable.
More and more experts have called for the establishment of coal futures trading methods, and some industry experts believe that the introduction of the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index is for coal futures. On October 27, at the 2010 Coking Enterprise Access Seminar, Jin Gan, president of the China Coking Industry Association, said that the relevant departments are actively promoting and preparing for the listing of coal futures. The timing of the listing of coal futures is ripe and will be launched next year.
Futures trading has the function of price discovery and risk avoidance. Coal entering the futures trading market can reduce the intermediate links of coal trading, reduce transaction costs, and provide a basis for the transaction cost analysis of power plants.
"Coal futures may be an effective way to regulate the development of the coal market. Futures trading is conducive to the formation of reasonable prices, providing a safe, accurate and fast transaction platform for both parties to the transaction." Industry insiders generally believe. Li Yongsheng said that coal futures can give coal companies a platform for hedging and make the market more open. The futures market has the function of predicting future supply and demand, so that the market has expectations for future prices. The company can arrange production and supply reasonably to avoid the risks caused by price fluctuations and unstable profits.
He stressed that with coal futures, it is equivalent to increasing supply channels and is also conducive to the development of the coal industry.
"Today's coal is simply a price a day. We are not picking up the 'cash on delivery' list at the moment." Han Lijun, a salesperson of Shaanxi Shenfu Coal Transportation and Marketing Service Company, is arrogant.
Since October, China’s coal prices have risen all the way. According to the statistics of China's coal price network, the coal price per ton in North China increased by 10~30 yuan in October, and the average unit price of coal in the southwest and central and southern regions reached 40 yuan.
At the same time, coal stocks in the stock market maintained the same pace as the spot market, rising almost at the same time, coal stocks rose more than 50% on average, the hot coal market was dubbed "coal super crazy."
At the same time as the "super coal madness", the first national-level coal price index system compiled by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index, was put into trial operation on October 13. The index was selected in the first batch. 149 companies as data collection units, with 7 days as the reporting period.
To what extent can the price index guide coal prices, and what is the role of China's unimproved coal price system? There are many opinions in the industry, and there is no consensus.
Unconventional rise
According to Han Lijun, the coal prices in the Shenmu area are all rising. “The market is now very good and the coal price will continue to rise.â€
The rising demand for coal during the peak season is an objective factor. Li Yongsheng, an analyst at the Mid-term Futures Research Institute, believes that the hoarding of traders, the narrow sales channels of coal, and the difficulty of transportation are important reasons for pushing up coal prices.
Zhang Yan, who has been engaged in coal trading for a long time in Tianjin Port, started to burn coal in August, waiting for the price increase at the end of the year. He only bought 10,000 tons for financial reasons.
From the perspective of the coal market, the current coal market is basically balanced in supply and demand and does not have the conditions for a sharp rise.
Li Yongsheng analyzed: "The imperfect construction of China's coal market system, narrow sales channels, coal demanders can not directly buy coal, so that the middle traders can take advantage of."
In the process of rising coal prices, hot money is also indispensable. Seasonal factors and the so-called “Millennium Extreme Cold†climate have also been used by some coal traders and hot money as a tool to push up coal prices.
Zhang Yulin, research director of the China Investment Consulting Industry Research Center, said in an interview with the reporter of China Economics and Informatization: "Some forces are creating an atmosphere in the market that is conducive to the rise in coal prices."
In addition, the increase in coal transportation costs has also boosted coal prices. “The relatively low cost of coal transportation by train is controlled by a few people, and the price has been disguised.†Li Yongsheng said that this is an important reason for traders to choose to transport coal. Therefore, it is not surprising that recent news about coal traffic jams on highways is frequently reported in newspapers.
In the Yulin Shenfu area of ​​Shaanxi Province, coal users across the country have almost formed a situation of grabbing coal. “The coal transportation vehicles are concentrated in the Shenmu and Fugu areas that enter Yulin. The traffic jams are large. No matter the size of the large and small coal mines, there are more than 100 vehicles in the queue. The loading must be queued, and the number of vehicles will be more than three days, resulting in a large freight rate. The rise has increased the cost of using coal." Han Lijun said that after 11 years, the freight rate rose by about 50 yuan / ton.
Price index is difficult to use effectively
As an important resource for the country's economic life, the coal price trend not only affects the operation of the coal industry, but also plays a decisive role in macroeconomic development.
The purpose of the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index is to guide coal prices and reflect the level of China's coal prices and its changing trends. The National Development and Reform Commission said that the move aims to promote the reform of the coal market and improve the coal market system.
Although China's coal market has gradually established a price mechanism based on market formation prices after years of reform and development, the pricing mechanism of the coal market is not perfect. "The current release of coal prices does not mean that coal price reform has been completed, and the formation mechanism and regulation mechanism of coal prices are far from being established." Coal industry analyst Song Liang said.
Qian Pingfan, director of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that with the completion of the National Coal Trading Center, the price index of the coal industry will become the price vane of the industry. "This is conducive to China's formation of a relatively fixed and perfect coal trading model, which will help China to grasp the right to speak in the international coal market."
However, according to an interview conducted by China Economics and Informatization, it was found that among the experts in the industry, coal companies and traders who are in the coal trading line did not agree.
Han Lijun bluntly said: "Our daily coal trading does not refer to the coal price index at all." In fact, there are not a few coal traders who hold the same view.
"For coal traders, the thermal coal price index is a summary of the market price performance in the past week, with a lag, it is difficult to affect their real-time transactions, they pay more attention to the spot price of coal." Coal industry Senior analyst Hu Yu told reporters.
"The current coal pricing system is still in the hands of a few people, and the market price has not really formed." Li Yongsheng said. With the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction and the integration of coal resources promoted by the state, the advantages will be more concentrated to large enterprises, coal will still be a monopoly industry, and prices still have room for further upward movement.
“In fact, the coal price index is also available in various ports, but it is not recognized by coal companies and traders.†For the soaring coal price, Li Yongsheng suggested that the country needs to fundamentally accelerate the construction of the coal market system, increase supply channels, and open coal. Monopolize the market.
Coal futures on the road?
The rise and fall of coal prices has a huge impact on the development of downstream enterprises, especially the power industry. At present, while the rapid development of China's economy, the contradiction between "market coal" and "planned electricity" has become increasingly prominent. Industry experts believe that traditional energy trading methods have been unable to provide accurate information to the market and affect the healthy development of the market.
China's coal production accounts for more than 40% of global coal production and is the world's largest coal consumer. Whether considering the long-term development of the coal industry or the important role of coal for economic development, it is increasingly important that coal prices are stable and reasonable.
More and more experts have called for the establishment of coal futures trading methods, and some industry experts believe that the introduction of the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index is for coal futures. On October 27, at the 2010 Coking Enterprise Access Seminar, Jin Gan, president of the China Coking Industry Association, said that the relevant departments are actively promoting and preparing for the listing of coal futures. The timing of the listing of coal futures is ripe and will be launched next year.
Futures trading has the function of price discovery and risk avoidance. Coal entering the futures trading market can reduce the intermediate links of coal trading, reduce transaction costs, and provide a basis for the transaction cost analysis of power plants.
"Coal futures may be an effective way to regulate the development of the coal market. Futures trading is conducive to the formation of reasonable prices, providing a safe, accurate and fast transaction platform for both parties to the transaction." Industry insiders generally believe. Li Yongsheng said that coal futures can give coal companies a platform for hedging and make the market more open. The futures market has the function of predicting future supply and demand, so that the market has expectations for future prices. The company can arrange production and supply reasonably to avoid the risks caused by price fluctuations and unstable profits.
He stressed that with coal futures, it is equivalent to increasing supply channels and is also conducive to the development of the coal industry.
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