The rising trend of wood, what is the "risk" behind the "prosperity" scene?

The


China board trading network news:

In 2016, the price of wood was continuously affected by the three major factors: the lack of raw materials, the high price of sea freight, and the devaluation of the renminbi. For a time, the timber market around the country set off an upsurge of inquiry and shipments. Years later, various log and sheet industries also entered the start-up state one after another. Looking at the state of market development, the overall price trend of the timber industry is indeed a confirmation of 2016 speculation that 2017 will continue to rise in timber prices. The price of wood continued to rise in 2017, and it seems to the outside world that the timber merchants have become full, but the prospect of this "prosperity" is "crisis".

Plate market situation: internal and external problems

According to the reporter's visit, there is now a small amount of take-off in the domestic wood-based panel market, and the actual number of orders started today is not much. According to some merchants' reactions, now the goods are mainly concentrated on plywood, veneer, and wood. The reason for this situation is mainly due to the hot spring of decoration.

Looking abroad, the United States announced in February this year the "Standard for the release of formaldehyde from composite wood products." The implementation of this standard will restrict the trade of wood products such as boards, floors, and furniture in the United States to the United States. On the one hand, China has increased the cost of detecting timber and delayed customs clearance time; on the other hand, it is possible that our country’s wood products could not be returned through the bill; or else other countries also follow the United States to increase the difficulty of exporting wood products in China. .

Is the price soaring to the truth or is it hype?

Such fierce and direct increase in the price of wood will naturally cause suspicion of speculation. Take fruit red sandalwood as an example, Shenzhen Guanlan market, large fruit rosewood rectangular timber with a diameter of 60cm or more, the market price is as high as 3.5 yuan/ton or more, has surpassed the highest transaction price in this year's fruit red rosewood trade, and others are listed as endangered The price of wood species is even more impressive.

According to sources, at present, the large households in Shenzhen Guantao and Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu are scrambling to raise the prices of hot timber. Naturally, there are many speculative ingredients. Under the loose monetary policy, the growth rate of M2 is significantly higher than the sum of GDP growth rate and CPI increase in the long-term, and there are more and more money on the market. There is always a good place to go. The stock market has just hit a disaster last year. The bond market capacity is limited, and the wood market, which coincides with the low value and has a value-preserving function, has become the target of many speculators. Some merchants revealed that the main business of some companies is speculation in rosewood, and the company’s financial resources have directly or indirectly entered the redwood market.

High-cost, high-risk timber dealers have a long way to go

At present, wood companies are most worried about the high cost and high risks brought about by this price increase. How to remedy the situation? The author believes that there are the following three points:

1. The concept of "environmental protection" is deeply rooted Wood merchants should select high-quality raw materials, apply environmentally-friendly production techniques, and research environmentally-friendly and healthy products.

2. Timber companies must actively face transformation and upgrading. Strengthen the brand's in-depth, technological innovation, increase product added value and so on.

3. Actively explore the market and in-depth understanding of the most realistic needs of consumers.

Some merchants admitted that although the price of wood continues to rise, most people do not like it. Restricted raw materials, high sea freight rates, increased customs declaration fees, and depreciation of the renminbi are the main drivers of the soaring timber prices. Prices have continued to rise, and demand has turned around. This is not a good thing for the long-term development of the timber industry.

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