China's photovoltaics are still "policy-driven"

For a long time, polycrystalline silicon has been used as a direct raw material for the production of single crystal silicon, and has only been applied to electronic information basic materials of semiconductor devices. Except for this field, it has almost been forgotten.

At the same time that the solar polysilicon project obtained an independent "identity", in 2005, China's "Renewable Energy Law" was passed. The adoption of the Renewable Energy Law demonstrates our country's choice and determination to develop and utilize renewable energy, including solar energy. At this time, the international photovoltaic power generation market began to flourish, greatly stimulating the market demand for polysilicon. The considerable price of the international market has promoted the rapid expansion of China's photovoltaic production capacity. In 2008, China's solar cell production reached about 2.6 million kilowatts, accounting for 32.9% of world production.

The legendary story of a rich night in the photovoltaic industry circle has attracted a large number of gold diggers into the industry. Unfortunately, the 2008 international financial crisis has come unexpectedly, shaking the price base of polysilicon. For those companies that are driven by profiteering and are involved in the photovoltaic industry lately, they have experienced more or less difficulties in the years, but those companies that have been involved in the photovoltaic industry earlier are still so glaring that they have issued an over-warning warning to decision-making departments. Turning a deaf ear, and this blind optimism in turn affects the decision-making department.

By 2010, as the global economy has gradually warmed up, the pulling effect of the government's vigorous promotion of solar energy policies has gradually become apparent, and the domestic and international photovoltaic industry has begun to show a strong recovery trend. However, these cannot hide the hidden dangers of the development of China's photovoltaic industry: behind the rapid development and the huge creation of huge wealth, the industry's overall development level is low; the photovoltaic industry structure has not been fundamentally changed, the products mainly rely on exports, and the enterprises are affected by the international environment. Large; the domestic application market has expanded after the "Golden Sun" project, but it has not really started.

In the first and second quarters of 2011, the domestic PV industry continued the enthusiasm of the previous year, and the investment rhythm is still in the midst of excitement. Increasing production and expanding capacity are still the hottest keywords in the PV industry. Although photovoltaics have experienced the Waterloo-like lessons of polysilicon in 2008, they have not been able to block the pace of new entrants. Local governments have introduced various preferential policies for the purpose of increasing GDP or for the development of low-carbon development, which has contributed to the development of photovoltaics: 18 provinces claim to build a “new energy base”. Hundreds of cities announced that they would use new energy as a pillar industry.

In the third and fourth quarters, everything seems to have reversed in an instant. With the demise of the listed companies and the changing environment in the domestic and international markets, the glamorous photovoltaic industry suddenly fell into disappointment. At this time, on August 1, 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission website announced its "Notice on Improving the On-grid Price of Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation" signed on July 24, 2011. The notice stipulates that the solar photovoltaic power generation project approved for construction before July 1, 2011, completed and put into operation on December 31, 2011, and the price not yet approved by the Development and Reform Commission shall be approved by the on-grid price as 1.15 yuan per kWh; July 1, 2011 Solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on a daily basis and in the future, as well as solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved before July 1, 2011 but not yet completed and put into operation as of December 31, 2011, except for Tibet, which still performs an on-grid price of 1.15 yuan per kWh. The on-grid tariffs of the remaining provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) are all executed at RMB 1 per kWh.

The promulgation of the document has given the photovoltaic industry a big surprise, so that the long-awaited industry is in the face of Ganlin.

However, the vitality of the photovoltaic industry has not yet recovered. From the end of 2011 to 2012, foreign “double-reverse” strikes frequently, and companies that have stopped production frequently appear, and news of stranded related projects emerges endlessly.

The photovoltaic industry has begun to struggle. In the first half of 2012, nearly 90% of domestic polysilicon enterprises stopped production, and the “reduction of staff” storm began to sweep through domestic PV companies. For a time, the photovoltaic industry was on the ice and on the abyss.

At the beginning of the 2013 New Year, domestic PV products prices rebounded after nearly nine months of continuous decline. Among them, monocrystalline silicon wafers and monocrystalline cell products increased significantly, and the price of the most upstream polysilicon material rebounded slightly.

With the introduction of a series of favorable policies since the end of last year, the entire market has shown a rebound.

In this warming season, Wuxi Suntech finally came to the news of bankruptcy. After more than a year of salvation and entanglement, the giant of this domestic photovoltaic field will not escape the bankruptcy. After years of blind and disorderly expansion and rapid development, the business situation of Wuxi Suntech has deteriorated. When the “two-outside” Chinese PV industry began to encounter overseas trade barriers, Wuxi Suntech, the “big pie”, became more and more crowded. It is very controversial that even in the case of bankruptcy, its orders in the international market are still in the top 5 of the national photovoltaic enterprise orders. The announcement of bankruptcy by the photovoltaic giant Wuxi Suntech has once again pushed the industry to the forefront of public opinion, and the debt situation of PV listed companies has also become the focus of attention.

However, in the third quarter, there was good news: On July 27, 2013, the European Commission announced that after negotiations, China and the EU had reached a "friendly" solution for the PV trade dispute. After arduous and meticulous negotiations between China and the EU, representatives of China's PV industry and the European Commission reached a price commitment on China's trade dispute over PV products. This price commitment reflects the will of the majority of Chinese companies, allowing Chinese PV products to continue to export to the EU and maintain a reasonable market share under the trade arrangements negotiated between the two parties. With the release of price commitments, some domestic polysilicon companies were greatly encouraged and resumed production. Luoyang Zhongsi realized full resumption of production on August 18, 2013; Yichang CSG Polysilicon Plant officially drove on August 4, 2013 after 11 months of parking maintenance, maintenance and upgrading; Shaanxi Tianhong also In September 2013, resume production and drive. Yingli, Jingke, Poly GCL and other PV listed companies have announced their third-quarter earnings. The financial report shows that after the domestic market gradually opened up and the emerging markets continued to develop, the performance of photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises began to rise rapidly, and some enterprises have already achieved profitability. Among them, Jinko Energy has achieved profit for the second consecutive quarter, revenue and component shipments. And the amount of profit has increased compared with the previous quarter.

The downstream power plant market is in full swing compared to the saturated upstream component market. A group of component manufacturers and inverter companies have been involved in the field of power stations and explored the general contracting and operation mode of power stations. However, they are also faced with the problems of grid-connected and electricity price subsidies, which are urgently needed to be perfected. Therefore, some industry experts believe that China's photovoltaic industry is still a "policy-driven" rather than a "market-driven" industry.

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