Domestic methanol forecast in the fourth quarter

After the National Day, although the sovereign debt problem in the euro zone was very lively, the performance of major global financial markets was extremely stable, and commodity prices fluctuate little. Although crude oil has risen continuously for five days in the earlier period, it seems that the methanol market is unlikely to be boosted from the current point of view. Since the end of June, domestic methanol shocks have been rising for three and a half months. After Zhuo Chuang's statistics, the major markets have risen by nearly 400-500 yuan/ton, and it has only recently dropped slightly. The following figure shows the trend of the major domestic methanol market this year.

Domestic main methanol market charts

Under the favorable expectation of overhaul of the main production facilities in the northwest, the trend of the market in the remaining trading days of the 11 years has become the focus of most manufacturers and traders. According to the Zhuo Chuang plan, the average prices in East China and South China this year have risen by RMB 300/t from the previous year. In the year when the production capacity of the northwestern device has risen significantly, the market price has not been as sluggish as in previous years. Last year, domestic methanol rose for two consecutive months in the same period, began to decline in early November, and all the way down to the end of the year, then this year's market trend will follow the previous years?

The only & greatest favorable support: the maintenance of the northwestern unit in the Zhuochuang statistics of the Northwestern effective capacity of 16.55 million tons, the current starting load around 70%, which is indeed a not low figure. At the end of the month, Inner Mongolia Jiutai's 1 million-tonne/year plant will undergo a 20-day shutdown and overhaul, and Inner Mongolia’s Boyuan total 1.35 million tons/year of 4 units will also undergo maintenance overhaul, which will inevitably affect the largest downstream market for formaldehyde in northwestern Hebei and Shandong provinces. The arrival of goods, which in turn led to changes in the mindset of some traders and manufacturers. Because the maintenance of good support, the current market mentality is still bullish expectations exist, but the increase is indeed limited.

Downstream support is weak, but it is difficult to improve before the end of the month. The National Development and Reform Commission lowered the price of gasoline and diesel by RMB 300/t in the early morning of the 9th. From the downstream perspective, the impact on the methanol market is greater. Firstly, the primary reason for the low price of the northwest goods in the early period is not unrelated to the explosiveness of the alcohol ether fuel industry. In the high gasoline market, methanol gasoline is very smooth due to its strong price advantage, and the downstream alcohol ether fuels are very smooth. The active stocking has played a crucial role in pushing up market prices. The recent reduction in the price of gasoline and diesel has made cost pressures on the small methanol workshops that have been at a high level of pressure. They have expressed difficulty in doing so. Secondly, the narrowing of the profit margin of industrial liquefied gas caused by the price cut of gasoline and diesel oil and the impact of low-priced imported gas in the second half of the month made the liquefied petroleum gas look very strong during the rest of the month, further exacerbating the DME negotiations. It is expected that liquefied gas will be difficult to improve before the next month. In addition, I believe that people in the industry have never put hope on formaldehyde.

**In the end can be listed as scheduled?

** listing can be described as twists and turns, experienced the listing storm in April, July, September, the recent market rumored to be listed on October 28th, and the rumors intensified. ** Will it be as hot as PTA or as coke-free as it will be listed? The author's personal opinion tends to be the former. After all, methanol, as an upstream of many chemical products, is indeed highly concerned. It is reported that the recent ** listing is undergoing the final review, let us wait and see.

Zhuo Chuang believes that in the fourth quarter of economic growth or will continue to slow down, it is indeed very difficult for us to make methanol as exciting as in the third quarter, but the cold winter natural gas limited civilian use will inevitably lead to the starting load of natural gas methanol production plant and this year. The overall average price and trend of the methanol market are better than last year. It is expected that the remaining methanol trading day will be consolidating at a high level in October, and part of the digested market will have a possibility to explore. In the remaining two months near the end of the year, the methanol market as a whole showed a downturn, and it is difficult to have obvious positive support.