Investment: Leading Growth of Smart Grid for Power Equipment Industry

The performance of primary and secondary equipments was significantly different: (1) The price of primary equipment decreased year-on-year, and performance continued to decline significantly. Although the current equipment tender price has stabilized and picked up, it has fallen sharply since last year, and the pressure of rising costs has increased, and the profitability of transformers and switch products is weak. Three quarterly results are expected to be TBEA (approximately 31% year-on-year decline); Tianwei Change (down 40%); China West (down more than 90%); Pinggao (probably continuing to lose about 40 million). It is difficult for the primary equipment gross profit margin to drop sharply again, and the industry is at the bottom. With the expansion of the fifth batch of tenders and the increase in future grid investment, the equipment industry is expected to turn for the better, but profitability is difficult to return to the past. (2) Maintaining stable growth of secondary equipment: NARI benefited from dispatching and distribution automation grew rapidly (up 65%); Guodian grew by over 150% from previous year (mainly due to land revenue, due to company scale expansion and integration costs Significant increase, slow growth of main business), XJ Electric (approximately 13% increase), Sifang shares (35%). According to the State Grid's plan, 5,100 smart substations and 1,000 smart substations will be built during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. With the increase in the size of smart substations, secondary equipment is expected to continue to grow steadily.

The power electronics sector continued to grow rapidly: Benefiting from industrial automation and variable frequency energy saving, the growth of power electronics business was faster, with the projected Huichuan Technology (up 73% year-on-year), SVA (40% growth), and Rongxin (up 28%). Twelfth Five-year energy-saving emission reduction pressure, the industry boom is expected to continue to improve.

New Energy: (1) Nuclear Power: The new nuclear power project is not expected to restart until next year, but it will have little impact on the performance of nuclear power companies in the short term. Dongfang Electric (an increase of 32%), Shanghai Electric (a growth of 15%), and (2) Wind power: The development of the wind power industry has slowed down, and the gross profit margin has declined year-on-year. Goldwind (a 60% drop) and Sinovel (a 51% drop) are expected; (3) Photovoltaic: European market demand is lower than expected due to the European debt crisis As a result, the prices of polysilicon and components have fallen sharply, and the profitability of enterprises has fallen sharply. At present, the industry is in the process of reshuffling. Chaori Sun (up 50% YoY), Oriental Sunrise (down about 10%) are expected.

Investment suggestion: It is recommended to configure the leading companies for sustainable growth in the field of smart and energy conservation, recommend NARI (Smart Grid dispatching and distribution automation leader), SVA (high-voltage inverters, switch components leader), Sinkcheon technology (frequency conversion And leading-edge servo systems. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with certain safety margins: Dongfang Electric, TBEA, and Rongxin.

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