Domestic net supply and demand for coal in October increased sharply

Domestic coal supply and demand was stable in October, and major coal distribution centers and key power plants were at normal levels. In some regions, the trading price of the thermal coal market has risen, and the annual key thermal coal contract price has remained stable.

Production and sales grew steadily. According to calculations, coal production and sales in October increased by 6% and 7.8% respectively, and continued to grow. In the first 10 months, coal production and sales increased by 15.2% and 17% respectively.

The volume of transportation increased rapidly. In October, the national railway coal transmission volume was 172 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. The main port completed 49.83 million tons of coal shipments, a year-on-year increase of 45%. In the first 10 months, the cumulative amount of railway coal delivered in the country was 1.657 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%. The main port completed coal shipments of 461 million tons, an increase of 22.1% year-on-year.

Net imports have risen sharply. In October, the net import of coal was 11.12 million tons, up 21% year-on-year; the cumulative net import of coal in the first 10 months was 118 million tons, up 51% year-on-year.

Part of the focus on coal consumption in the coal industry fell. With the structural adjustment, energy saving and emission reduction effects further manifested, the daily average consumption of coal in some key coal mining industries such as electricity and steel decreased. In October, the average daily consumption of coal for key power generation enterprises nationwide was 2.886 million tons, down 1.9% from the previous month.

Inventory is at a normal level. At the end of October, the northern five ports deposited 16.47 million tons of coal, up 39.9% year-on-year; the national key power generation enterprises had 62.76 million tons of thermal coal, up 34.2% year-on-year, and could consume 20 days.

Coal prices in some regions have rebounded. In October, due to factors such as the demand for winter coal storage and the rise in international coal prices, coal prices in some regions continued to rise. Take Qinhuangdao Port as an example. At the end of October, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal market rebounded to 770-780 yuan/ton, and reached 795-815 yuan/ton on November 22, up by 90 yuan/ton from the end of September. The annual key thermal coal contract price remained stable.

It is expected that in the next two months, coal production and sales will grow steadily, resource supply will be relatively sufficient, and supply and demand will be basically balanced. However, due to factors such as reduced hydropower in the dry season, excessive thermal power generation, and increased coal consumption for heating, it is not excluded that supply in some areas and individual periods is tight.

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