In January, the tin price in the international market rose strongly

In 2010, Indonesia's exports decreased, and the supply in the international market was tight. During this period, the LME tin price hit a record high, with an increase of 10%, and the inventory dropped sharply. The price was directly at the US$30,000/t mark.

1. Supply and demand relationship: According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), from January to October 2010, the output of refined tin in the world was 294,000 tons, consumption was 309,700 tons and the gap was 15,700 tons.

2. Indonesian market: According to data released by the Ministry of Trade of Indonesia, the country's tin exports in 2010 decreased by approximately 7% to 92,487 tons. In 2009 it was 99,287.38t. In 2010, the phenomenon of “La Niña” raged. Extreme heavy rains affected the weather. Indonesia’s production and transportation of tin were affected, especially in the second half of the year.

3, the domestic market: Customs data show that in 2010 the country imported fine tin and its alloy 18543t, a year-on-year decrease of 23.56%. Imported tin concentrate 19840t, an increase of 94.35%. 714t of fine tin and alloys exported, a year-on-year increase of 3.95%. National Bureau of Statistics data show that during the same period China's refined tin production was 164,399 tons, an increase of 11.6% over the same period last year. Tin concentrate production was 76,000 tons, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year.

4. Institutional perspective: Commerzbank stated that supply problems in the tin market will likely continue to exist in 2011 as exports from Indonesia are expected to continue to decrease as producers’ inventory is depleted. Other tin-producing countries will not supply large quantities to the global market. The Indonesian government expects tin production in the country to reach 90,000 tons this year, if tin prices remain high. In addition, there is little chance of a significant increase in the global supply of tin, as major producers such as Peru and China face the same problem of not exporting tin.

The bank also said that the tin market seems to be under double pressure. On the one hand, Indonesia's production decline has made supply tight. On the other hand, the latest data say consumption is better than expected. The International Tin Association (ITRI) stated that global tin consumption is actually much higher than the initial As expected, according to the data of the organization, the global tin consumption in 2010 was 360,000 tons, an increase of 12.5%. The main driving force comes from China, which accounts for 40% of global consumption. Consumption in other countries and regions except China is lower than the peak period in 2006. Although the amount of waste tin recovered is also quite large, it cannot compensate for the shortfall caused by insufficient supply of refined tin. It is expected that the price will still have room for growth in the near future.