It is expected that the export of tungsten industry in the second half of the year will be significantly restored.

Since the beginning of this year, China's tungsten enterprises have generally started to work. The tungsten industry has been affected by the fall in product prices. The year-on-year decline in profits and taxes has increased month by month, and the year-on-year growth rate of output and income has decreased month by month. The reasons for the analysis include:

(1) The industry market is in a downturn and the recovery is difficult.

At present, the downside risks of the world economy are still relatively large, and most countries in the Eurozone are deeply immersed in the “double crisis” situation of debt and prosperity. The US unemployment rate has rebounded, consumer confidence has fallen, and the economic recovery has not been motivated. Emerging economies are facing structural adjustment pressures, economic slowdowns have exceeded expectations, and uncertainties in the world economy have increased. Under the circumstance that the global economic situation continues to be sluggish, product prices are likely to fall further, but the extent of the decline is limited. Some people expect that the global economy will have a cold winter of about three years.

Due to the global economic slowdown, the prices of non-ferrous metals industry products have fallen or are sluggish, and the price factor has become the primary cause of the recovery of the non-ferrous industry.

(2) The market is down, and the business risks are increasing.

The prices of products continued to fall, the competition for non-ferrous metals products became more intense, and the price of tungsten was lower month by month. At the same time, electricity costs and labor costs increased significantly year-on-year, and labor costs rose by an average of 16% year-on-year. Enterprises face the downward pressure on the market, the price of inventory products is lower than the price at the beginning of the year, and the falling price of inventory products brings increased operational risks.

(3) The company's orders decreased and the product prices fell. Affected by the sluggish global market demand, the prices of non-ferrous products have shown a general downward trend.

The tungsten market has a basic balance between supply and demand, and it is more concentrated than the rare earth and copper industries. In 2011, tungsten prices hit a record high (tungsten concentrate of 153,000 yuan / ton), and now it is still high fluctuations (tungsten concentrate 103,000 yuan / ton) ) This year, the price of tungsten is lower than that of rare earth, which is more stable than that of rare earth and copper. However, there is still a downward trend, and the downside is estimated to be limited.

(4) In the middle of the year, there are signs of economic stabilization, but the economic downturn has not been fundamentally reversed.

With the central bank's interest rate cuts and other policies to maintain economic growth, it is expected that the fourth quarter will gradually reverse the economic downturn and regain growth momentum. The price of non-ferrous metal products has improved with the country's macroeconomic environment. It is expected to be a low-level shock rebound trend. The price will curb the situation of a significant decline in the previous period and will rebound. Exports are affected by deep-seated contradictions in the world economy, rising corporate costs, appreciation of the renminbi, and tight capital. It is expected that exports will not recover significantly in the future.