Photovoltaic industry in the fourth quarter of PV winter prices will fall

Yesterday, Henning Wicht, Senior Director and Chief Analyst of photovoltaic industry at IHS-iSuppli, an internationally renowned solar energy analyst firm, said in Shanghai that although the market size of PV will still increase by 25% compared with the same period of last year, the installation volume may decline next year. It is expected that the price of the photovoltaic industry chain will decline slightly in the fourth quarter.

Photovoltaic industry chain profits have been squeezed This year, with the European debt crisis intensified, coupled with several successive sub-subsidies for photovoltaic applications, the global photovoltaic industry suffered an unprecedented hit, the price of the industry chain all the way down.

iSuppli data show that in the second quarter of this year, the price of crystalline silicon modules fell by 16%, and the decline continued in the third quarter. At present, the price of crystalline silicon components of China's first-tier suppliers is between 0.83-0.85 euros/W. The price of crystalline silicon cells and wafers also dropped to $0.75/W (battery) and $0.54/W (156mm polysilicon). In the same period, only the price of polysilicon was relatively stable, and it has been hovering between US$50-60/kg, but it is expected to fall to US$40/kg in the fourth quarter.

As a result, silicon wafers and component suppliers are all facing a squeeze on profits. For most battery and component manufacturers, EBIT is still close to zero or even negative.

“At present, only vertically integrated plants can guarantee higher profit margins; but if they wish to continue implementing the integration strategy, they must also ensure relatively high capital expenditures. In addition, only the EPC, installers, and inverters industries are relatively reasonable. Profit margins.If the photovoltaic market is depressed, the inverter industry can quickly adjust production or business transformation. Therefore, its inventory levels will not increase, and prices will not drop as sharply as the silicon supply chain,” Wicht said.

Germany will realize the parity of photovoltaics ahead of schedule. However, the rapid decline in the price of the silicon industrial chain is not all a bad thing. "The quick drop in the price of the silicon supply chain also has the advantage of accelerating the realization of cheaper prices," Wicht said.

According to iSuppli's forecast, in the fourth quarter of 2011, Germany's PV will achieve user-end parity Internet access in advance. This is mainly due to the rapid decline in the price of components, which has led to the price of small commercial PV systems falling below 2.0 Euro/W. If the lifetime of the PV system is 20 years, with the current German lighting level, the unit's unit cost of electricity generation is 0.23 EUR/kWh. Currently, in Germany, the average electricity price paid by home power users to grid operators is approximately 0.23 EUR/kWh.

Despite this, Wicht believes that global PV demand may not increase again.

“We expect the scale of the photovoltaic market to reach 21.9 GW in 2011. Major installation countries such as Germany, Italy, the United States, China, and Japan will drive the market to increase by 25% from the year-ago period in 2010. However, due to the subsidy budget cuts and governments’ installation of photovoltaics With restrictions, the total PV installations are likely to decline in 2012. The areas where installations are expected to decline include Italy, France and Germany,” Wicht said.