Seasonal factors or the late chemical market **, the original salt and other future gains can be expected

According to the latest monitoring data from Business Club, in the 48th week (12.1-12.5) of 2014, the domestic chemical market continued to decline, and the chemical industry price index BPI fell from 818 points at the beginning of the week to 801 points, and dropped 17 points during the week. The stabilization signal stopped falling.

Zhang Ming, a senior analyst in the chemical industry of the business community, believes that the main factors affecting the domestic chemical market are: limited upstream raw material support, weak downstream demand, seasonal factors or the direction of the chemical market, **, raw salt, and fluorite (Northern China ) And other products can be expected late gains.

Data show that in the week of 12.5, commodity prices rose in the list of 13 chemicals in the chemical sector, and the top 3 products were calcium carbide (1.33%), *** (0.95%), and ** (0.75). %). There were 68 kinds of goods with a month-on-month decline, and 9 kinds of goods with a decrease of more than 5%, which accounted for 7.8% of the monitored goods of the sector; the products with the first 3 losses were styrene (-12.00%) and pure benzene (-5.92). %), xylene (-5.91%).

Zhang Ming believes that the market as a whole presents three major characteristics. First, the cost of raw materials in the upper reaches is negatively transmitted, and the petrochemical industrial chain is the most affected. Although international crude oil prices rose slightly last week, the price below $68/bbl pushed the market for styrene, benzene, toluene, xylene, phenol, aniline, and aniline further into the abyss. The top 13 fell in the decline. The rate is all above 3%, and the weekly decline rate of styrene styrene in the drop list has reached -12%, which is further deeper than the week-long decline in the weekly list of champion trichloroethylene -10.04%, making styrene In the case of new lows for products such as , **, etc., the entire chemical industry has also been dragged to the depth of adjustment.

Second, the sharp fluctuations in the prices of external disks have profoundly affected the adjustment of the domestic market. Asian heterogeneous xylenes fell to a five-year low and the market picked up prices. It closed up 8 US dollars/ton on Wednesday, FOB Korea closed at 730 US dollars/ton, and CFR Taiwan closed at 763 US dollars/ton. Sinopec East China xylene this week quoted: Zhenhai Refining, Yangba solvent xylene in 5700 yuan / ton, Zhenhai Refining, Jiujiang Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Nanjing refinery heterogeneous xylene in 5700 yuan / ton. Sinopec East China Xylene offer: Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Yamba solvent xylene in 5700 yuan / ton, Zhenhai Refining, Jiujiang Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Nanjing refinery isomerization xylene in 5700 yuan / ton.

Third, in the second half of the fourth quarter, the downstream demand was weak and failed to lift the market rebound. Last week, the domestic styrene ex-factory prices continued to drop deeper. The average factory price of domestic enterprises at the beginning of the week was at 8798.29 yuan/ton, and the average price of ex-factory prices of domestic enterprises on Friday was 7725.71 yuan/ton, and the overall price fell by 12.0%. The current price fell year-on-year last year. 33.97%, a record low during the year. Upstream domestic raw materials prices ** low order, the mainstream offer 6300-6400 yuan / ton, cost support fatigue. At present, the overall operating rate of downstream manufacturers is insufficient. The operating rate of domestic PS main manufacturers is 60%, the operating rate of EPS manufacturers is less than 40%, the operating rate of ABS is about 60%, and the downstream needs procurement. The transaction atmosphere is relatively light.

Taken together, Zhang Ming believes that at present, international crude oil is undergoing a sharp shock and consolidation in the range of $65-70/barrel, which does not show signs of bottoming out. The aromatics, olefins and alkanes as the basic chemical raw materials are adjusted closely to their weaknesses. For example: Sinopec Huazhong Branch ** listing price was lowered by RMB 400/ton on December 1st and listed at RMB 6,500/ton. On Friday, it was heard that Sinopec will lower again by RMB 500/ton on December 6 to reach RMB 6,000/ton. The ex-factory price, this price hit a new low of nearly three years. This week there are fewer varieties of rises, ranking in the top spot of calcium carbide. The ex-factory price of domestic companies is 2561 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2595 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.33%. The factory operating rate is about 60%, and the supply is slightly different. At the same time, the market price of downstream trichloroethylene rose by 0.38%. Both of the two benefits contributed to a slight increase, but there was insufficient room for further growth. In the short to medium term, seasonal factors may highlight the possibility of late-stage gains in products such as **, raw salt, and fluorspar (in the northern regions) that enter the winter production stoppage period. Similarly, dry season electricity prices will also slightly push up yellow phosphorus prices. attention.