Southwest Futures Aluminum Weekly

Last week, comprehensive aluminum in London was supported by fund buying and the US dollar weakened in March. It hit a new high of US$2014/ton in 10 years. It was once lowered to US$1945/ton on Friday and it closed at US$1987/ton in the week after it received support. The previous week rose 34 points. Shanghai Aluminum exceeded its technical resistance at 16800, and its trading volume was active. It expanded its position and closed at a new high in four months. Shanghai Aluminum’s April consecutive contract was higher at 17,200. It was somewhat lower in the later period under concerns of rising interest rates. It closed at 16,980 yuan/ton on week, up 390 points from last week, a rare increase in recent months. At the beginning of last week, before the US trade and capital flow data were released in January, the US dollar fell below technical support against a variety of currencies, under pressure from traders, which added to the momentum of the dollar's decline. In the case of a weak US dollar, supported by fund buying, the base metal market rose strongly, and Lun Aluminum hit a new high for the past decade. On Friday, the US trade data for January announced that the surge in consumer product imports caused the current trade deficit to expand to $58.3 billion, which is higher than the market's general expectation and the second highest in history. The trade deficit continued to be high. On the one hand, the US economy showed strong external demand. This also reflected the prosperity of the US economy from another perspective. On the other hand, the trade deficit was suppressed both in theory and in investor psychology. A weaker US dollar will cause commodities to become more attractive to investors holding other currencies, thus raising the price range of commodities. At present, the continued strength of the US dollar will be difficult to achieve in the short term, which will further support the maintenance of the base metals, which is one of the main drivers of the recent strong support of the base metals. The continuous decline in inventories is another important factor supporting the strong rise in aluminum prices. As of March 10, LME aluminum stocks fell again 18,375 tons this week to 566,400 tons, and by the end of 2004, the inventory is still 692,775 tons, down nearly 130,000 tons. The current inventory is the lower level in recent years. Moreover, the cancellation of warrants is still around 120,000 tons, accounting for about 21% of the total inventory, which indicates that the LME inventory may continue to decline significantly. This will be the main factor in the continued rise in aluminum prices in the future. However, during the same period Singapore’s inventory levels have changed little, and the aluminum inventories in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have increased significantly. This is mainly due to the fact that, on the one hand, despite the Chinese government’s cancellation of aluminum export tax rebates, China’s aluminum exports are still relatively high. The level continues to fill warehouses across Asia. On the other hand, due to the higher price of aluminum, consumption has been affected. With the gradual approach of the consumer season, buying is expected to gradually recover, which will be one of the potential drivers of aluminum price increases in the latter period. This is also the reason why the current rise in aluminum in the United States and Europe continues to rise, while the Asia region is relatively weak. As for the domestic market, the pressure of aluminum prices is significantly higher than the international market. This is mainly reflected in the spot pressure, making the rise in price appears weak. The main reason for the formation of this situation may still lie in the sluggish consumption. At present, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the South China Sea is relatively low (only about 10,000 tons), but aluminum processing has been plagued by factors such as electricity shortages, affecting the demand in the region. East China is the main site for inventory. After the year, Shanghai Futures Exchange increased its aluminum inventory by more than 30,000 tons in Shanghai. Although geographical and transportation differences are one of the main reasons, this is also a reflection of the poor consumption. In addition, the domestic aluminum consumption is mainly in real estate and transportation. The real estate industry was hit by the macro-control in the first half of last year. The lagging impact on aluminum demand will gradually appear this year. However, the inventory of auto inventories is relatively large, production has declined, and the consumption of aluminum will not grow too quickly in the later period. Coupled with the huge domestic production capacity, the weak domestic situation in the later period is not likely to undergo a fundamental change. Domestic hope depends on continued rapid growth in consumption and exports. As for the later trend, in the short term, LAU will remain at a high level due to the impact of declining inventories, a weaker U.S. dollar, and continued rising trade premiums. The focus of the Shanghai aluminum market is still concentrated on the two issues of spot pressure and the impact of long-term huge capacity. The current futures price has a greater appeal to commercial selling, and coupled with the lack of speculative power in the market, the 17,000 resistance is very heavy. If London continues to rise and the domestic market keeps going up, investors' mentality will be changed. Speculation forces will be further involved. Shanghai Aluminum's weakness is believed to change. ◆ Aluminium import and export and spot reference price import LME3 month + premium discount x exchange rate + VAT + tariff + transport miscellaneous fees CIF South China Sea price 1987 +29 8.28 x1.17 x1.05 Export Aluminium CIF Raw Aluminium Cost X2 Domestic Processing Fees Export Tariffs + Transportation Charges - Value Added Tax Export Costs / 8.28 LME Spot Monthly 5% 100 ÷ 1.17 1780 2116 Note: Export Calculation Formula: Alumina X2+ (domestic processing fee +100) ÷ 1.17 ÷ 8.28 ÷ 0.95; Do not calculate trade premiums; compared with before, the author adopted more direct imported alumina prices, reducing the calculation of intermediate links such as intermediate tariffs and VAT.

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