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Recently, the bull market in the global commodity market seems to be out of line with domestic aluminum prices. Since January 1, 2005, 17% of China's electrolytic aluminum export tax rebates and 5% tariffs have been revoked, and domestic aluminum prices have been suppressed. The spread of primary aluminum at home and abroad has continued to shrink. After removing the exchange rate factor, the spread of primary aluminum at home and abroad fell to zero once last Friday, and in early 2004, the price difference between the two had exceeded 400 US dollars. Last Thursday, the continued weakness in the domestic aluminum price induced a large profit-making market in the aluminum market. The price of London aluminum fell sharply for two days in a row. It was once lowered to $1,870 on Friday but was quickly pulled up. Still maintained. Affected by this, this week Shanghai Aluminum opened higher and higher, a strong rise, the main contract AL0405 opened at 16,510 yuan, to close at 16,560 yuan, up 90 yuan from the previous trading day settlement price. In 2004, China’s imports of aluminum (including primary aluminum and aluminum alloys) totaled 1.03 million tons, while total exports reached 1.68 million tons. Despite a significant increase in domestic exports of primary aluminum last year, domestic primary aluminum supplies are still abundant in the short term. Domestic spot prices have also been difficult to pick up. In 2005, China will strictly limit the export of electrolytic aluminum, the domestic electrolytic aluminum export volume will decline, if the production does not appear a more substantial decline, the production pressure will have to be released in the domestic market, then the Shanghai aluminum future will still lag behind the London market . This Monday morning, the spot price of nonferrous colored primary aluminum of the Yangtze River was yuan, which was close to 100 yuan. The low spot price has become a major obstacle to the recent rise in domestic aluminum prices. In terms of LME market, Lon Aluminum inventories are continuously declining. As of last Friday, the total inventory has dropped to 604,000 tons, and there is still a momentum of continued decline. The total positions have also continued to expand after the delivery in February, and have reached a With 438,000 sheets, the price trend of Alluminium has generally shown a healthy upward trend. Domestic aluminum prices have been repressed by policy factors to rise. The top-height sell-out at 16,500 yuan is heavy. It is recommended that investors should be held cautiously with more than one warrant, rolling operations.
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