5 major trends in the digital revolution

People's Daily Online, Beijing, March 3 (Zhao Zhuqing) On the afternoon of March 2, 2015, Li Kaifu, Chairman and CEO of Innovation Works, made a speech entitled “Digital Revolution and New Entrepreneurship” at the Science and Technology Daily “Technology Innovation Lecture Hall” ——Learning from the practice of innovative workshops to see China's science and technology entrepreneurship. The following is a record of the speech (with abridged):
I am very happy to give a speech in mainland China for the first time after I fell ill. In fact, there is a very important coincidence. When I returned to the mainland for the first time 17 years ago, when I first returned to Beijing, I was very honored to have published an idea about future technology in Science and Technology Daily. Whether development can become a Silicon Valley. At that time, China’s science and technology products were very backward and education was lagging behind. But in just 17 years, we have seen miracles. Zhongguancun has become the world's top entrepreneurial base. A few days ago, Peter Thiel of Silicon Valley came to China and mentioned in his speech that Zhongguancun is one of the best entrepreneurial bases in the world.
Today we have to think about what brought about such a revolution. What Chinese entrepreneurs bring can make China the second largest in the world. If they continue to go this way, I think Chinese entrepreneurs can reach the global lead. Today I want to share a few ideas with you. First, the era of gold entrepreneurship brought about by the digital revolution. Second, the digital revolution will change our future and the future will be better. Third, how to grasp the opportunities for innovation among Chinese entrepreneurs.
Mobile Internet has overturned our lives for the past 5 years
First talk about global trends. Years ago, exactly 40 years ago, there was no PC concept at the time. But there have been two revolutions, the PC revolution and the Internet revolution. Everyone has a PC with a mobile phone to access the Internet, and many global companies have been born. However, in the past five years, the achievements of development have basically been compared to the past 35 years. It can be said that the past 35 years are almost insignificant. In the past five years, the development of mobile internet and social networks has connected people and information, connecting people and people, and people can find people and information at any time. With 35 years of growth, there are 2 billion devices worldwide. But in the past five years, there are 6 billion devices worldwide.
Where are the world's leading companies, how do we change us? We can see that. Companies in the US and China are really leading the world. The paper books we used to watch have really been replaced. Many industry mergers, such as Didi and Fast, have changed our travels. In the past, I used a large camera to take pictures, and now I use a mobile phone. Shopping now uses Alipay, saving money with balance treasure. If you think about it carefully, if you hand over your mobile phone to you 10 years ago today, tell him what features he has. You will be very surprised 10 years ago and feel that you are riding the time machine from the future. Why is this happening? Because in the process of using these things, we have forgotten the revolutionary changes that have taken place in these 10 years: changing the details of our lives, how to make friends, how to work, how to shop, have been subverted by the mobile Internet. It is.
Six phenomena have spawned a wave of entrepreneurship
The first thing, the calculation is getting cheaper and the cost of calculation is reduced by 10,000 times. You can think about it, if the car is 10,000 times cheaper, what would it mean if the house is 10,000 times cheaper? The 10,000 times reduction in computing costs has brought popularity, and everyone can own a mobile phone.
Second, the construction of infrastructure. From the cable network in the past, to the current wireless 3G, 4G, and 5G in the future, various technologies allow us to be ubiquitous. Although it is unclear whether the operator is making money, it has brought huge profits to companies such as Tencent Baidu.
Third, the cost of starting a business has reached a record low. In the past 30 years, designing a PC may cost tens of millions of dollars for five years. But in today's mobile Internet era, the cost of starting a business is very low. Three 5 college students create an APP that allows people to download for free. If the products are good enough, their entrepreneurial costs will be hundreds of thousands. If you use your own time and open source software, the cost of starting a business is almost zero. This is simply a business without a business. As long as your engineers are willing to put their time and energy into it, you can get the investment right away. From tens of millions of dollars in the hardware era to hundreds of thousands of dollars today, if there is a group of engineers and friends, the cost of starting a business is almost zero. If everyone is coming out of business, how exciting our entrepreneurial environment is.
Fourth, very fast growth. If you don't have too many channels, your growth will be very fast. From millions of mobile phones to tens of millions of mobile phones, Xiaomi relies on the Internet for sales and service. The whole is Internet thinking and can be done very quickly. The digital revolution has accelerated the pace of innovation and entrepreneurship.
Fifth, there are many smart investors coming in. If a smart person gives you money, the value will be different. He will help you with ideas, help you introduce your contacts, or give you resources. At this time, you will really be more powerful. Innovative workshops also hope that they are smart, and more importantly, rely on knowledge, connections and resources to help you grow your company quickly.
Sixth, the last point is very important. When the genius enters the industry, what industry begins to subvert. Now check it out. The geniuses who went to the famous schools are no longer going to be executives after graduation, but they are starting a company. I deeply believe that genius is invested in a certain industry, and this development is unpredictable. Nowadays, global geniuses are increasingly entering entrepreneurship, which will lead to hotter entrepreneurship. This is why the digital revolution has brought about tremendous changes. Each field has special advantages and opportunities, but the digital revolution, its tentacles can reach every face of people, and can really change every minute and every detail of everyone's life.
The digital revolution has just begun
I just saw 6 billion machines in the mobile Internet era. But if you go back five years, there are probably 40 billion units. It cannot be said that the mobile internet revolution is over, and now it is time to make money by mobile internet. not like this. Our digital revolution has only just begun, and the future will be seven or eight times more than in the past. In the next five years, growth will be even greater. In addition to mobile phones, tablets, and wearable devices, connected cars, the total adds up to 40 billion.
Who has big data, whoever has the advantage
The PC and the Internet are the first cycle, the second cycle of mobile and social, and the third phase and cycle is the cloud computing and big data and O2O sharing economy. Now, in the background of the mobile Internet, all the people's online activities can be contacted by huge operators and entrepreneurs. The big data in the background can analyze a lot of details and make very accurate predictions. Whoever has big data has a huge advantage. The storage of data and the opportunity to bring in mining, as well as the learning and intelligence of machines, will bring about a huge revolution.
The Internet of Things has more imagination and the other is the so-called concept of the Internet of Things. In the past, adding a microprocessor to the machine to make it Internet is a few thousand yuan, and now a few hundred yuan can be, as long as you buy a mobile phone. In the future, the watches, shoes and thermometers of each of us can be networked. As long as you have a few tens of dollars in a place where you have access to electricity, you can get something online. This is the Internet of Everything, which will bring more imagination.
The golden age of entrepreneurship led by new trends
With 40 billion Internet devices, there are five trends in the future.
First, young people will lead the future of content, technology and investment. They are a new generation in the digital age. The elite generation of the past has brought us a lot of good things, but it has indeed brought us a lot of old things that cannot be removed.
Young people are different, the younger they are, the more they will come into contact with new products. Everyone here, some people may use the WeChat for the first time, maybe the child will teach you. A lot of interesting things are taught by children. They were born in the Internet age or mobile era, and they have no other ideas in their minds. You may have seen a child sliding a TV screen in front of the TV. They think that the world is all slidable. Young people prefer to be fun and attractive. They like things that can move, especially interactive. They are the people who lead the times.
What kind of APP can live, and our 95th is a very leading leader of the times. After 90, we will study with 95s. After 85, we will study with 90s. After 80, we will learn with 85s. After 70s and 60s, there is no hope.
In the future, it must be the age of young people. They lead the content. This is a trend. Young people make products, do code, do it for young people, and play for young people. People who are still thinking in agricultural thinking live in industrial society and will not bring revolution. Unfortunately, many of us are born in the agricultural age. I didn't show my older daughter what I did in the innovation workshop. She is already 23 years old, she is out, and her little daughter can.
Second, look at any problem, and don't look at the problem with the "old world." For example, electric vehicles and electric vehicles are only one link in the future development. It is not very important to use electricity for automobiles. It is important why people buy cars and who will pave the way. Old thinking is agricultural thinking.
What is the future car like? The car of the future should know where I go from where I go every day. When I need it, the car will appear. When I use it, it will disappear. This car is not mine. Therefore, gasoline and charging are not important. Why do the car have to have a driver, google is studying the car he drives (automatic driving), measured it, the car accident is much less than driving. Is the drip fast must be the final car mode? In fact, the driver who spends the most money is the driver. If you don't want the driver, you will save money.
We can find that 97.5% of the cars bought now are not driven from A to B. If a car does not go from A to B, there is waste. If in the sharing economy, we only need 2.5% of the car is enough. Of course, this is a perfect idealistic idea that does not actually achieve perfect efficiency. Today, if we retired 8 cars in 10 cars in Beijing, but we use cars in a shared way, we will not be traffic jams.
If you change your head, don't think about it with old thinking, you can innovate. Back in more than 100 years in New York City, the biggest problem at that time was that there was too much horse dung. At that time, many people, including civil servants, were considering how to pull the horse manure away or let them pull a little less. The last problem was the car. Many energy problems Traffic problems are not necessarily a technology, but a more revolutionary thing.
I suggest that you have children, let your children see science fiction, of course, I suggest that it is best for scientists to write science fiction.
The third talks about the Internet of Things, the Internet of Things is a more important change than the mobile Internet. If you asked me about the Internet of Things 5 ​​years ago, I would think you are bragging. At that time, it was costly to let the machine go online, but now it is not. If you ask me, Kaifu, what should I invest in? I told you 5 years ago that mobile internet is the biggest trend, but I can't predict that we are using WeChat and Momo in our mobile phones. I can only tell you which directions, but you have to let me tell the exact things, it is very difficult. New key applications will emerge in the future, even though we don't know what it is now. Another issue is the industry standard. The Internet has a world standard and it is easy to communicate. If Microsoft Tencent has its own standards, it will be messed up. After the industry standard is reached, for example, the car will be able to access the Internet in the future. When the traffic is blocked, you have to fly to the company, and the leader will let you go right away. Now you can only tell the driver to drive faster. In the future, the car can communicate with other cars. For example, if you say to the previous car, do you want to drive to the right and let me, the car may say that I want you to, You said that I can give you two cents. This is the state of future machine and machine communication.
Fourth, big data knows you better than yourself. This is not bragging. If you go to the business and you buy something, it will know what you should buy below. American businesses will accurately see what consumers are buying. For example, in a case that is often cited, a supermarket in the United States analyzes the shopping data of a 15-year-old girl and sends a pregnant baby test article to the female customer based on the analysis result. The girl's father is very angry and immediately complains to the supermarket because Her daughter is only 15 years old, how can she buy maternity supplies? But not long after the girl's father found out she was pregnant. Future stores and services, knowing who you are, where you live, what you bought in the past, what you are used to buy, and what you want to eat today, the computer knows more than what you want, than you I know you better.
Fifth, last but not least, innovative practices come from small companies. Clayton M. Christensen's book The Dilemma of Innovators tells the truth. Many leading big companies make a lot of money, which is a dilemma because they will be eliminated. In the past, some companies, leading in the Internet era, were eliminated in the mobile Internet. Because they make a lot of money with the past, when new things appear, they will evaluate new things. Since they have made so much money in the past, that's fine. Past successes make you look down on a new thing, and more seriously, you think that new things affect the profit of your old things, and you are less willing to use new things.
The most famous is Kodak, which invented a digital camera, but it ended up in bankruptcy. It's not that Kodak's people are too stupid, but they fall into the dilemma of innovators. They always feel that film is better and they are not willing to let digital cameras affect the profit of film. Of course, their film still made a lot of money, but in the end they lost the emerging market. Companies that spend a lot of money on investment can extend their good things by 30 to 50 percent, but new challengers will replace it sooner or later. For the innovation workshop, we are not interested in the big companies. The future belongs to young people and also belongs to small companies.
Know your smart hardware better
More understanding of your smart home, this may be more expensive. But it is getting cheaper in the future. The important thing is that they know you more and more. For example, the smart piano, the more you play, the more you know your level. Intelligent transportation, give you a pad, you can make the car a digital smart car. The future of science fiction is our common goal. Not a company can subvert the future, but it should be slowly and step by step. Robots will increasingly become consumer goods. The sci-fi robots are hard to reach, although they will become more and more clever, but there will be many problems in the big environment, such as speech recognition will drop a lot, so the sci-fi movie robot is also step by step. But now there is a smart robot to help us sweep the ground, this can be expected. There are also various health management. The entire medical industry is most in need of subversion by the digital revolution. The digital revolution can start from measuring the blood pressure of the heart, and the future will become cheaper, such as the chair telling you whether the sitting posture is correct.
Make education as fun as a game
We talked about the past, medical and health did not accept new technologies, and education may not accept new technologies. For many years, the best education is like sitting down to the teacher today and then asking a few questions. Now, in addition to the teacher, there is also a network to help you test the problem, the teacher has a pad to help you communicate when teaching. But now everything is just the tip of the iceberg. The future of education lies in personalization, self-adaptation, and student centralization. There will be augmented reality and virtual reality in the future, and learning is as fun as playing a game. For example, in my middle school days, I felt that the most difficult thing to learn was historical geography. In the past, I had to recite what year the emperor was born, various ages, events, wars, chronologies... If you have a virtual reality helmet, you can come to it. Historical events, such as the Qin Shihuang Burning Book and Confucianism, you may be Qin Shihuang, or may be a pitted Confucian, gaining the experience of a bystander or a pitted "Confucian". In the future, students should make learning fun. This thinking is very difficult, from agriculture to industry, from PC to mobile, this is to change a head to do. However, we are all taught by old thinking, but if the imagination of people all over the world come together, the future is still very bright.
Advantage of sharing economy
In the past, I spent money to buy a house to buy a car and drive myself. Now it is like this, as long as you will drive, provide services, everyone likes it, you can become a trusted driver. Aibnb rents out ordinary houses, and the small stores next to Meituan.com can be rented. They are all involved in the sharing economy, sharing their own things with others and letting everyone use them together to enjoy the most convenient and best services. Some of the current services, such as nails and massages, can happen at home in the future. For the consumer, it saves time and gets better service, and saves the middleman. Because the middleman has to take a lot of money, he hasn’t done anything, and he won’t tell you who is good. But if a lot of people on the Internet tell you that this person is doing well, it is a guarantee for you, and the promotion of the whole society is very fast.
China's opportunities and advantages
We add up to more than one billion companies. The United States has a total of $180 billion, and China has $60 billion. The world, with the exception of the United States and China, adds up to $30 billion. The good news is that China was only one-twentieth of the United States 10 years ago. When the United States accounted for two-thirds of the world, China accounted for two-ninths of the world. This is a miracle. But the challenge is that it seems to be the world of the United States. But there are many opportunities.
The first advantage is that China Mobile Internet has many latecomers. First, China's Internet users account for only 48% of the total population, and the United States is 80%. China's third-tier and fourth-tier cities have not been Internet users in the past because they have not yet access the Internet. But now they may skip the PC and go directly to the mobile internet. Also, people who have been growing for more and more years have begun to go online. The countryside also has great potential.
Second, China's large and medium-sized cities are densely populated and the service industry is not high. It is the best laboratory and the largest stage for sharing the core areas of mobile Internet such as digital entertainment. Like China, our kind of service to the home can't be done in the United States. Friends who are familiar with the United States may know that in the United States, from one family to another, driving sometimes takes 40 minutes, and in the absence of traffic jams, there is no way to do distribution and on-site service. Who is driving the US for 40 minutes? Therefore, China and the United States each have their own advantages.
The third is hardware manufacturing. China is a big manufacturing country. In the past, in the manufacturing process, it did not make a lot of money and became a factory in the world, but profits were taken away by innovators. But now more and more hardware startups are from China, and the brand advantage in the future may be different. In the past, we hope that traditional brands will go abroad, but now we have crossed this step. Xiaomi is selling in many countries, and this process can be expected in many fields. Fly directly to the smart hardware.
The second advantage is that Chinese-style innovation costs are lower and combat is stronger. Big investment to gain market leader status: Only the front runner can make huge profits. Quickly acquire users and expand the market with free products.
Third, China’s innovation is different from that of the United States. The United States may be subversive. Jobs said that when he looks up in the mirror in the morning, he can say that I know what future users will want. This is subversion. But China may not have Jobs, but the great advantage of China is that most of the startups now rely on a Steve Jobs, but rely on sophisticated research to what users want, first make a simple product, keep rolling, one by one. Point iterative updates, iterating over the research user. When you go back and think about it, what is the first version of Tencent WeChat? We will find that it is iteratively growing every day, so this model can be made bigger and bigger. Now Tencent WeChat and Facebook are such iterations, so You don't need a genius Jobs. As long as you are a diligent and competent CEO, China is just the kind of person. The advantage of Chinese entrepreneurs is that they are more resilient and more diligent. Today's iterative innovation of the mobile Internet is coming, the quality of Chinese entrepreneurs is particularly suitable for such development.
The fourth advantage. What if we want to be bigger than two-ninths? There are still great opportunities abroad. In the past, as long as the United States made things and did very little things, it could enter the developed countries, occupy Europe, occupy Australia, and occupy Canada. They are English and worship the United States. Where is China's opportunity? If China enters the UK, there is certainly no advantage for the United States. But if China enters Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand, China has an advantage. Because the users in developing countries are more like Chinese users, Chinese companies are going global. Kunlun Wanwei and Cheetah have told us that it is very promising for Chinese companies to go global, because the distribution of Chinese users and the future development have, to a large extent, led the country that is a few steps behind China.
The fifth advantage is the new generation of China. This is especially important because when the Innovation Workshop was established in 2009, we were able to teach them to start a business. They have a lot of questions about the terms, management and operation of entrepreneurship and need our help. Today we find that the situation is changing, entrepreneurs are getting younger, entrepreneurs are getting younger, they are almost 30 years old, and they have many entrepreneurial experiences. The best way to learn a startup is to join a startup rather than a big company. The best way to push the machine is to get him closer to the market. In today's digital revolution era, there is no need for a lot of policies to choose, universities to train, the market mechanism is very mature, as long as young people have entrepreneurial awareness, use their products, just let them join the startup company to learn a school, very It might be the next great startup like Minomi Tencent.
In addition to young entrepreneurs, investors are also very young. This process is happening and very optimistic. As I said just now, five years ago, young entrepreneurs came mainly from big companies. But now, with the past two years, more than a dozen companies have reached valuations of hundreds of millions of dollars or even more than one billion dollars. The company cultivates a lot of talents, they earn enough money to run the company, some earn enough money but earn enough experience, and some take money directly as investors. This whole batch of people will bring a huge wave. We can see more gratifying phenomena. It seems that we think that the mobile Internet is a huge direction, but entrepreneurs are no longer in the hotspots, but scattered in dozens of Different fields are really blooming in all fields. Entrepreneurs teach each other hands and the entire ecosystem is basically completed.

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