Analysis of the operation of China's nonferrous metal industry in 2014 and the outlook for 2015

In 2014, affected by the superposition of the three phases of the domestic economy, China's economy has entered a new normal of medium and high-speed growth. The domestic and overseas market demand is not strong, and the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase. Under the severe domestic and international economic situation, the non-ferrous metals industry conscientiously implements the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adheres to the general tone of steady progress, and actively develops the excess capacity of electrolytic aluminum to promote the transformation of the development mode and structural adjustment of the non-ferrous metal industry. The non-ferrous metal industry remained basically stable throughout the year.

I. Operation of non-ferrous metal industry in 2014

(1) Production maintained steady growth. The output of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 44.17 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and the growth rate dropped by 2.7 percentage points. Among them, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc production were 7.96 million tons, 24.38 million tons, 4.22 million tons, and 5.83 million tons, respectively, up 13.8%, 7.7%, -5.5%, 7%, and the growth rate of primary aluminum fell. 2 percentage points. The output of copper and aluminum was 17.84 million tons and 48.46 million tons, respectively, up 13.3% and 18.6%, respectively, and the growth rate dropped by 11.7 and 5.4 percentage points respectively.

(2) The investment structure is gradually optimized. The non-ferrous metals industry completed fixed assets investment of 691.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 15.2 percentage points. Among them, aluminum smelting fixed assets investment was 61.86 billion yuan, down 17.8%; non-ferrous processing completed fixed assets investment was 381.07 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year. New progress has been made in overseas investment. The overseas aluminum resource development projects of Shandong Hongqiao Group and Shandong Xinfa Group started construction. CITIC Daika invested in the construction of aluminum alloy wheel factory in the United States.

(3) Progress in transformation and upgrading. In 2014, the industrial added value of the non-ferrous metals industry increased by 11.4% year-on-year, and the main business income was 570.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. Affected by factors such as weak demand and strong US dollar, the annual average price of copper, aluminum and lead was 49,207 yuan/ton, 13,546 yuan/ton, and 13,860 yuan/ton, down 7.8%, 6.9% and 2.7% respectively. The industry achieved a profit of 205.3 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year. Among them, the common non-ferrous metal mining and smelting realized profits of 26.6 billion yuan and 21.7 billion yuan respectively, down 12.4% and 13.7% respectively, and the aluminum smelting loss was 7.97 billion yuan, but the non-ferrous metal rolling processing realized a profit of 89.4 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6 million year-on-year. %.

(4) The steady growth of foreign trade. The total import and export of non-ferrous metals was US$177.16 billion, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year. The import value was US$10.02 billion, down 3.2% year-on-year; the export value was US$77.16 billion, up 40.9% year-on-year. Affected by Indonesia's restrictions on the export policy of raw ore, the imports of bauxite and laterite nickel ore decreased by 48.7% and 33% respectively, and alumina imports increased by 37.7%. At the same time, trade frictions have risen, and anti-dumping lawsuits against foreign aluminum and aluminum alloy wheels exported from China have occurred.

(5) The level of energy conservation and consumption reduction is further improved. With the wide application of energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, the national AC ingots have reduced the AC consumption to 13,596 kWh/ton, down 144 kWh/ton, saving 3.5 billion kWh; and comprehensive energy consumption for copper, lead and electrolytic zinc smelting. They were 251.8 kg of standard coal/ton, 430.1 kg of standard coal/ton, and 896.6 kg of standard coal/ton, down 16.2%, 6%, and 1%, respectively.

Second, the main problems exist

(1) The pressure of overcapacity in the industry is still large. There are not many backward production capacity that should be eliminated in the existing 35 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. The lack of competitive enterprises involves a series of problems such as local taxation, personnel resettlement, debt resolution, upstream and downstream industries, etc. The excess capacity of electrolytic aluminum is still relatively large. At the same time, the smelting capacity of other varieties and the overcapacity of middle and low-end processing are also serious.

(2) The cost pressure of enterprises has continuously increased. Due to the power system, the decline in power generation costs caused by the fall in coal prices is difficult to transmit to users. The state-owned electrolytic aluminum, sponge titanium and other enterprises that use grid power have suffered serious losses. Banks have generally tightened corporate credit, and companies have turned to high-interest loans to shadow banks. In 2014, the financial expenses of large-scale non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises increased by as much as 20%. The adjustment of resource policies in countries such as Indonesia and Zambia has also affected the development of related industries and the economic benefits of enterprises in China.

(3) The ability to innovate still needs to be strengthened. In 2013, China imported 230 billion US dollars of integrated circuit chips, which is the largest import commodity. 70% of integrated circuit materials are non-ferrous metals. Overall, China's non-ferrous metal deep processing products are generally in the low-end of the international industrial chain, product accuracy, Consistency and stability are poor. Some high-end non-ferrous metal products for electronics, marine engineering and aviation also rely on imports.

(4) The operation of state-owned enterprises is generally difficult. The pace of reform of state-owned enterprises is slow, and the vitality of enterprise development needs to be strengthened. In 2014, the profit of state-owned and state-owned holding companies of non-ferrous metals accounted for 6.5% of the whole industry, and the loss accounted for 67% of the whole industry. The loss of state-owned backbone enterprises accounted for the net loss of the aluminum industry. More than 90%.

Third, the main situation and pre-judgment

2015 is the year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. The global economy is still in a period of deep adjustment after the financial crisis. Despite the obvious recovery of the US economy, the economic recovery of other developed countries is weak, and the growth rate of major emerging industries is declining. Under the new normal China's economic downturn is still relatively large. The implementation of the new "Environmental Protection Law" and the increase in the cost of resources, environment, labor and other factors have forced the non-ferrous metals industry to move from scale expansion to innovation-driven as soon as possible. At the same time, the implementation of national strategies such as “One Belt and One Road”, coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Yangtze River Economic Belt have also provided new growth drivers for the development of the industry. It is estimated that the production, consumption and investment of ten non-ferrous metals will further increase slowly in 2015, and the price of products will continue to be weak and volatile, and the difficulty of business management is still very large.

Fourth, the key work of non-ferrous industry management in 2015

(1) Study and draft the “13th Five-Year” industry development plan. Summarize the achievements in the development of non-ferrous metals, gold and other industries in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", analyze the situation and existing problems, and study and draft the "13th Five-Year Plan for Development of Nonferrous Metals Industry" in conjunction with the new development strategy and goals of the country. "The 13th Five-Year Development Plan for the Gold Industry" and "Guidelines for the Development of Aluminum Industry".

(2) Resolving the overcapacity of electrolytic aluminum. Increase supervision over projects under construction, strictly control the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity; encourage existing power plants and electrolytic aluminum plants in the region to vertically integrate according to the industrial chain, and combine power system reform to study and promote the relationship between grid power, self-supplied electricity and local area networks. The price of electricity is fair, and some of the electrolytic aluminum enterprises with high technical level and good resource conditions are deferred due to the unfair price of electricity; the upstream and downstream industry alliance of aluminum is established to expand the application of aluminum in construction, electric power, transportation, aviation and other fields; Encourage domestic aluminum companies to build electrolytic aluminum and aluminum processing overseas.

(3) Improve industry normative management. Revised and promulgated the "Conditions and Conditions for Lead and Zinc Industry" and "Standard Conditions for Tungsten and Tin Industry", researched and formulated "Golden Industry Standards and Conditions", strengthened the standardization of access management and the convergence of financial, environmental protection and energy policies, and researched and established the industry standardization follow-up management system. To strengthen the dynamic supervision of announced companies.

(4) Advancing the integration of the two depths. The research proposes a "two-in-one integration" standard system for the non-ferrous metals industry, and supports enterprises to use the next-generation information technology to focus on industrial public service platforms, smart factory demonstrations, and virtual technology platform research and development, and promote the production automation and management informationization of non-ferrous enterprises. Process intelligence, manufacturing personalization, and create digital, intelligent and service industries.

(5) Improving the management of rare metals. Promote the introduction of the "Regulations on the Management of Rare Metals"; adjust the way in which the rare metal directive production plan is issued, explore the production index of ammonium arsenate smelting; research and promote the tax reform of tungsten and molybdenum resources.

(6) Do a good job in structural adjustment and analysis of industry operations. Do a good job in the elimination of backwardness, technological transformation, standard revision and other related work in 2014, continue to strengthen the monitoring and analysis of the non-ferrous metal industry, especially the electrolytic aluminum industry, and timely reflect the new situation and new problems in the industry.

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