China's PV industry lacks core competitiveness and urgently needs to adjust its development strategy

At present, China's photovoltaic industry still lacks core competitiveness.

Hong Wei: Not long ago, I and Yingli’s Miao Liansheng made a dialogue with the title “market recognition is the core competitiveness of photovoltaic companies”. This is a word he himself had in the dialogue. I think it is very good, not only in line with his thinking habits and language style, but also accurately summarizes the evaluation of China's photovoltaic industry ten years of development, so I will quote it as a topic. This is one of the main contents of the "Dialogue New Energy" series. In the dialogue, our views are completely consistent: After 10 years of development, China's PV industry has a core competitiveness. As long as we can survive the "double reverse" and industrial integration, the international competitiveness of China's PV industry will be improved and strengthened. Will do better.

Zhou Wei: If we think that the current Chinese PV industry already has core competitiveness, we will make optimistic estimates for the future. Unfortunately, I think the future is not optimistic. We must not take lightly on the problems of the Chinese PV industry because of the outstanding achievements we have achieved in the international market. Whether through the review of history or the judgment of the current situation, the core competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry is obviously insufficient. I have been to many domestic first-class photovoltaic companies, where most of them see production lines armed with imported equipment. In particular, domestic equipment can hardly be seen in precision manufacturing. If China's photovoltaic products are competitive in the international market, then this competitiveness is mainly composed of imported advanced equipment, cheap labor, and support policies of local governments in land, taxation, and financing. From this point of view: China's photovoltaic industry's core competitiveness is seriously lacking.

Of course, I am not saying that Chinese PV companies do not have their own technology. In some aspects of the industry chain, we have already done and done quite well. I have seen a lot of domestically produced equipment, such as laminating machines in the packaging sector, at companies such as Suntech, Yingli, Artes, and GCL. However, there is still a big gap between our advanced technology and equipment in key technologies and equipment.

Institutional problems are the root cause of slow technological progress

Hong Wei: It is said that in the past, a large part of the competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry was reflected in the support of cheap labor and local governments. I agree. However, only China's PV industry is recognized as having a market share of 65% of the global market. It does not agree with the fact that it does not recognize core competitiveness; it only recognizes that it has core competitiveness and it does not recognize that there is a certain degree of technological competitiveness. The difference between you and I is whether it is a quantitative issue or an essential issue. I think it is a quantitative issue. In the early stages of industrial development, all equipment may be imported. As the industry continues to grow, the competitiveness of Chinese people’s own technology and domestic equipment continues to increase, and the share of market share is also increasing, and will accelerate in the future. There is an interesting phenomenon: GTsolar, the world's leading producer of crystalline silicon ingot furnaces, recently announced its withdrawal from the field of ingot furnace production. This is not only the demand for upgrading, but also the result of the limited demand of global equipment. In addition, whether the market share of China’s domestic equipment, which is the major demand country of its products, continues to increase is also one of the reasons.

The key point of the problem is: If the core competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry is only the cheap labor and local government support, then the “double reverse” is due to the sharp increase in tariffs of exporting countries, and China’s original cost competitiveness should not exist. Mean that China's photovoltaic industry should withdraw from the historical stage? How do people who say that China's PV industry does not have core competitiveness answer this conclusion? My opinion is that China's PV industry will become even stronger after the “double reverse”. Therefore, in addition to cheap labor and government support, the Chinese PV industry still has a strong core of technology and other factors.

Zhou Wei: This is "the benevolent see the wise see wisdom." I think it might be clearer to look at this issue from another perspective. We often say what kind of soil is what kind of flowers bloom and what kind of fruit. Since the industrial revolution, the scientific and technological progress of our country has always lagged behind the West. There are many reasons for this, but one important reason is that the system and mechanism to promote scientific and technological advancement have not been well resolved. The scientific research and production in our country are out of line, and the results of scientific research cannot be effectively transformed into productive forces. The various technologies and equipment required for the production process need to be imported from abroad. This has become the soft underbelly of almost all industries in China. Against the backdrop of a lack of benign systems and institutional support, the result of the transformation of scientific research achievements in China's photovoltaic industry into productive forces can be imagined. It can be said that if we do not make a determined effort from now on, we will focus on solving the system and mechanism issues of the conversion of scientific and technological achievements, actively expand the domestic photovoltaic market, and vigorously promote the technological progress of the photovoltaic industry. The prospects of the Chinese PV industry after the “double reverse” are indeed worry.

Low price competition strategy is not the best choice

Hong Wei: I agree that China lacks the ground for innovation and technological progress due to various reasons. First of all, from the domestic and foreign sources that I have also collected for competitive companies, Chinese enterprises are lower than foreign countries in extracting a certain percentage of scientific research expenses based on sales. Second, although the number of patents for China's photovoltaic industry is much higher than that of foreign countries, the invention If there are fewer patents, I am afraid even less will be truly translated into productivity. However, looking at the nature of things depends on development. As an old man in China's photovoltaic industry, Miao Liansheng told me repeatedly that studying the Chinese PV industry must understand the history of the industry. I have carefully sorted out the different links in China's photovoltaic industry chain. I have made great progress in equipment manufacturing. I am competitive in core technologies and will be more competitive in the future. It should not negate the mainstream of the industry because of the temporary problems of the industry, and then deny its future development.

Zhou Yu: China lacks an active environment that encourages the development of science and technology and translates scientific research results into real productivity. This makes Chinese PV companies participate in international market competition, and technology becomes a serious shortcoming. In order to ensure the competitiveness of its products, Chinese PV companies have to go for the second time, have to make a fuss about expanding production capacity, reducing labor costs, and pursuing government support policies, and adopt low-cost, low-price competition strategies to contend with their opponents. The result is always in the The lowest-end competitive state of the "smile curve". What's more serious is that this competitive strategy has further attenuated the momentum of technological progress, making China's industrial sector into technological advancement and cannot always be the "non-benign development trajectory" of core competitiveness. Overemphasizing the continuous expansion of production scale, not focusing on improving production technology, eventually plunged into a "institution" designed by others. It has long been a "world processing factory" and "green" others, leaving pollution to themselves. This development model is very dangerous.

This mode of development is not only harmful to China, but also harmful to the technological progress of global industries. For example, the unrestricted low-cost competition in China's photovoltaic industry has severely inhibited the further development of advanced technologies such as “thin film”, making it difficult for foreign companies that possess this advanced technology to hamper the technological progress of the global photovoltaic industry. terrible. All of this stems from the flaws in the design of our industrial development ideas and is the inevitable consequence of the country’s excessive pursuit of GDP growth. Since the dominant ideology of China's international competition strategy formed due to historical reasons is problematic, it is first necessary to change the strategy of over-emphasis on scale.

Accept international rules to be better accepted by others

Hong Wei: If anything can develop in accordance with the ideal state of course, but of course there is an old saying in China: “Life is not as good as it is.” I am afraid that China’s photovoltaic industry is also developing. Moreover, industrial development also has its own rules for the development of the industry. In the process of the development of China's photovoltaic industry, some issues can be circumvented, and some problems cannot be evaded. I remember seeing an article on the analysis of the photovoltaic industry recently. There are two words that are very interesting: "The photovoltaic industry has an endogenous contradiction in the early stage of industrialization. - Reduce costs and scale consistency through technological innovation. Taking into consideration, the expansion of the photovoltaic industry since the US financial crisis has two notable features. First, it basically established the technological route of using crystalline silicon as the mainstream, and second, it has rapidly reduced the cost of production by rapidly sizing." Once the analysis is established, then at the stage of China's specific productivity level, the development of China's photovoltaic industry will only be based on the development of large-scale development based on crystalline silicon technology. After all, China's PV companies have to survive, but also to develop, and the development is not bad. Recalling a big debate on China's stock market a few years ago, some experts raised the issue of serious development in China's stock market, and they proposed that they should “put down the past”. I think it is neither realistic nor even more ridiculous.

Zhou Hao: I often think lately why the Western countries have to carry out "double reverse" against us in succession. To put it plainly, the Chinese are too hard-working and can endure hardships. People are better than you. We can do more than a dozen hours a day. As long as we pay overtime, the workers can be happy. This is not the case for people. When they get off work, whoever speaks is not good, and enjoying life is first. If the photovoltaic market in the past was in China, the collapse of the people’s enterprises could only be helpless. The problem is that the market is in people's homes, and we have no way out if we do that.

What can people do if they don’t find anything? After all, the global economic integration, the world's claim is just a good wish. Therefore, it must be said that people's markets must be played according to the rules of others, and playing according to their own rules is not acceptable. Give yourself a way to live your life. Many of our companies do not follow the rules of others in the market of others, do not follow the rules of the international market, blindly do bigger and stronger, blindly adopt low-cost strategies to suppress their opponents, make no money for themselves, and let people make money. To the money. I hope to squeeze people out of people's markets and become bosses. How can this be successful? From my point of view, this "double opposition" will come sooner or later. It is the inevitable result of the protectionist doctrine of trade protectionism in the context of the global economic downturn. It is also the ultimate result of our long-standing GDP strategy and low price strategy. If we can't profoundly reflect this time, I am afraid that this kind of thing will happen again in the future.

Hong Wei: I firmly oppose this point you made. Yes, before 2011, 99% of China's PV industry market was abroad. As you said, it was "playing" on people's ground, and "playing" was very big, accounting for 65% of the market share of people. To make it clear that we can achieve such a large market share, we must first of all strictly follow the people's rules to "play." Before 2011, 80% of the global market was in Europe represented by Germany. Everyone knows that the European standard is the most stringent. We can stand in such a market, not relying on relationships, let alone guns, but whoever it is. According to your standards, provide better prices and service results than you. Until now, there are a large number of overseas EPC companies lobbying the government for the adoption of China's photovoltaic products. When it comes to subsidies, which country is not subsidized, and there is a subsidy for the photovoltaic industry, it has been running for almost ten years. It is a well-known event, so it will “double reverse” and only shows that our competitiveness is too strong according to your rules. Now. This is the law of the market and it is a law that conforms to the laws of economic development. As for the problem of China's PV companies, it is a question that needs to be gradually raised in development. In the market competition, waiting for you to wash your hands and grab food, the meal is gone.

Zhou Wei: Speaking of this, there is no fundamental difference between you and I. It's just a matter of a slight difference in the sense of proportion. But I always believe that companies do business in the international market, it is to their own government to escort. Without a unified national strategy, companies are fighting each other in the international market and kill each other. In the end, they can only be defeated and defeated. The current situation of China's photovoltaic industry, the article should start from the expansion of domestic demand, and it should be more intelligently integrated with international rules and accepted by the international community. Otherwise, we will make more sense. We will not even deal with the fact that the market is based on people. The rules are set by the people. We will eventually suffer losses and do not have much to fight back. I believe that today's China is already very strong. We should start with how to adopt peaceful means and strive to change the current unreasonable international economic order. Fundamentally speaking, in this kind of international economic order based on the US dollar credit, we should not excessively pursue huge trade surpluses and use exchanges of resources, environment, and labor to exchange for US dollar bills in order to guarantee the filling of foreign exchange reserves. This is for us. The economy is a double-edged sword. If you do not handle it well, you will hurt yourself.

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