China has been upgraded by the United States and Europe, two great global PV trade wars

According to industry analysts, “there are many porridges” is the source of the outbreak of photovoltaic trade. Now the whole photovoltaic industry in Europe, especially the downstream battery and component companies, is in very bad condition. On November 8, China's photovoltaic industry was hit by two "big sticks" from the United States and the European Union. The global PV trade war is intensifying. Yesterday, the European Commission officially announced that it had initiated a countervailing investigation on silicon wafers, batteries and components imported from Chinese PV companies. So far, the EU has followed the footsteps of the United States to conduct a "double anti-" (anti-dumping, countervailing) investigation of Chinese PV products. Earlier on September 26, Solar World's European industry association EU ProSun filed a complaint with the European Commission, alleging that solar panels imported from China and its major components benefited from unfair government subsidies. The European Commission said that from the perspective of the imports of solar panels and their major components involved, this is the largest countervailing complaint ever received. The EU is currently the most important export market for Chinese PV companies, accounting for about 70% of China's PV companies. The EU's move involves its 21 billion euros worth of PV products imported from China and has created the world's largest trade friction case. On the same day (November 7th, US time), the US International Trade Commission (ITC) made a final ruling to make a "double-reverse" final ruling on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and components imported from China, and began to impose punitive measures on Chinese photovoltaic cells. tariff. China has not been outdone. On November 1, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a “double anti-" (anti-dumping, countervailing) investigation of EU solar-grade polysilicon materials. On November 5th, China proposed to negotiate with the European Union and its related member states under the WTO (WTO) dispute settlement mechanism on the PV subsidy measures of some EU member states, and officially launched the WTO dispute settlement procedure. In this regard, a person in charge of a PV company listed in the United States said that behind the PV trade war is the imbalance between supply and demand, and the cause of shrinking demand is the European debt crisis. “What can you expect from a market that lacks money?” “The economy is not good, International trade protectionism has risen. Externalization of internal contradictions has shifted internal issues abroad.” Wang Haisheng, chief analyst of Minsheng Securities’ new energy industry, said, “This is a trade war, not a photovoltaic.” Wang Haisheng, a Chinese PV company in deep trouble, said that the future will look at the development of emerging markets, including the domestic market. Another person in charge of a domestic PV company said that the Chinese government will open up the Chinese market. By then, this multi-national romance will see who can sustain it for a long time, and the winner is the winner. Recently, the Chinese government has begun to implement a rescue plan for the photovoltaic industry, and a series of policies are being introduced. “The strategy has been come up.” The EU expects the investigation to take 13 months. If there is sufficient evidence to prove that the above subsidy is true, the EU may impose temporary countervailing duties within 9 months. Artes related people said that it is very ridiculous. On the one hand, the EU itself has a large number of subsidies in the development of photovoltaics. On the other hand, the support of the Chinese government started late and the intensity is much smaller than that of the EU. “Once the EU ruling comes out and a high tax rate is imposed, China’s PV is basically paralyzed,” said Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University. The European market accounts for 70% of China's PV companies' exports. Once the European market is closed, Chinese PV companies will suffer. What's even worse is that the “double-reverse” object in Europe is almost the entire industry chain, including silicon wafers, batteries and components produced in China. Therefore, just like to deal with the US “double-reverse”, just replace the battery chip. Overseas OEM or overseas procurement can't be avoided. However, some PV companies said that the facts are not so pessimistic, and they have come up with a response. The person in charge of the above-mentioned companies revealed that they would use similar OEM methods to produce technology and cooperate with PV companies in third-world countries such as India to avoid EU restrictions. Both parties will be divided into sales. "Without our assistance, these photovoltaic companies in the third world countries without technology will be eliminated, and they are very happy to cooperate," said the person in charge. “The biggest strategic transformation of Artes is to continue to expand downstream. As a total solution provider, it has already obtained more than 700MW (MW) of project reserves overseas.” Artes related sources said, “Artus has Canada. The factory also purchases battery chips from Taiwan. Before the final decision on the EU, we still hope that the government will safeguard the legitimate interests of domestic enterprises through anti-sanctions and other means, and hope that the EU will consider irrational behavior from the overall situation." “The European market must not give up, because Europe is the largest stock market and provides the most stable cash flow. In this respect, China must do a good job.” Martec Maizhehua (Shanghai) Investment Management Consulting Co., Ltd. Cao Yu said, "We can also try to set up component factories in low-cost regions of Europe, such as Poland, Ukraine, Romania, etc., to ensure that our sales channels and brands exist, which is very important, otherwise it is very difficult to go in. In the context of the EU's "double opposition", China's road to photovoltaic integration may accelerate. Wang Haisheng said, "This is a problem of hard landing and soft landing. Landing sooner or later, industry consolidation will be phased out sooner or later. In this case, the elimination will be more violent." "The trade war will be the result of double loss." In fact, solar energy The industry has become a "black hole" in the stock market. The total market value of the largest companies in five years has shrunk by about 90%. According to the analysis of the Financial Times, “If there is something wrong with it, it is the industry itself – not only overcapacity, but also relying on government subsidies at the time of economic contraction.” In fact, it’s the source of the outbreak of trade wars. . Cao Yu said that the current photovoltaic industry in Europe, especially the downstream battery and components, is very bad, causing dissatisfaction among workers and banks in the entire industry. "If you don't 'double', how can you face them? Now you can't get off the stage, only It can be said to hit other people's slaps and focus on the key points." "There is more news for the next trade war. Especially in the US, it has launched a comprehensive containment policy for China's rise." Vice President of China Renewable Energy Society Meng Xianyu said that for such a trade war, China must fight back. However, whether such a counterattack is effective or not, the industry also has different views. Wang Haisheng believes that the import of polysilicon in China is dependent. The market where polysilicon prices are lower than your existing cost must definitely make use of foreign countries. Now, if you are 'anti-foreign, then it will force domestic enterprises to expand production. This is The company pushed into the fire pit. Cao Yu also believes that this kind of counter-measure is not good. "The counter-measures we are taking now will have two effects. The first one is to tell Europe that we should not "double-reverse" Chinese companies. We will also counter it, that is, let them cancel the "double-reverse" investigation of China. This seems to have failed. The second is to tell Europe that in the future, it will not investigate the "double opposition" of other industries in China, which is not good for both sides." For the final trend of the trade war, a person in charge of a PV company listed in the US said, " If the European Union establishes and levies taxes on Chinese products 'double opposition' next year, the photovoltaic products made from European imports of polysilicon will not return to the European market; and because of China's 'double reverse', European imports of polysilicon cannot be used in the Chinese market. The game is aborted!” “At this time, overseas polysilicon giants WACKER (Germany), Hemlock (USA), OCI (Korea), the Big Three have become the big three, how to solve this dead game? This story will definitely happen in the second quarter of next year. The Chinese market is growing very fast. To achieve the balance of demand for polysilicon, it takes time, who will survive, and who will set the world!" said the source. "We should expand the domestic market to save ourselves. " Meng Xianzhao believes that while the Chinese government is fighting back, it should also fully expand the domestic market and carry out self-help. Recently, a series of favorable PV policies have been frequent. For example, on October 26, State Grid announced that from November 1st, 6 MW and below capacity photovoltaic power generation projects can be directly applied to the local grid company for grid connection, and can fully acquire surplus photovoltaic power generation projects. Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently revealed that Premier Wen Jiabao and Vice Premier Li Keqiang have repeatedly pointed out that China's photovoltaic industry crisis should be resolved. The China Electricity Council, the State Grid, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Finance have all received instructions and are starting related projects, so the relevant meetings have been very intensive recently. Wang Haisheng also said that Chinese companies now need to explore other markets outside Europe and the United States. "Especially in the Chinese market, the installed capacity of 2 GW (Jiva) last year, 5 GW this year, 10 GW next year. Then open up the Latin American market, the Indian market and the Asia-Pacific market, these markets will not be stopped." The Financial Times of the United Kingdom analyzed that the current PV trading war is actually a cloud. No industry can survive and grow by subsidies. The key to the photovoltaic industry to usher in spring is to improve technology and reduce power generation costs.

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