Crimes and penalties in the photovoltaic industry: continue to be bleak next year

Zou Jianming runs a photovoltaic polysilicon wafer factory in Kaihua County, Zhejiang Province. He recently decided that due to the short-term hopeless improvement in operation, two new production line equipments in the factory will be packaged and transferred.

He told China Securities Journal that the two production lines were introduced in June 2011 and that they will encounter the Great Depression of the photovoltaic industry for nearly a year in the future. “At the time of the introduction, it cost tens of millions, and now it can transfer at most half price.” He looked at the machine that had been dusty for more than a year. He lamented: “In 2010, the company will enter a million yuan, and the middle-level cadre will have at least 5 year-end awards. Count, the annual meeting is still thinking about a beautiful tomorrow, but for just one or two years, everything has changed?"

All the changes mentioned by Zou Jianming occurred in 2012. “Internal and external troubles” is the industry’s most common comment on the PV industry in 2012. At the beginning of the year, Germany and Italy were downgraded by the European debt crisis. The “double-reverse” sticks in Europe and the United States have been launched one after another. A series of actions have led to a sharp decline in the market share of Chinese PV companies in Europe and the United States, with over 200 billion. The export value of the yuan suffered a fatal blow. The large-scale start-up of the domestic PV market has always been “thundering and rainy,” and PV companies that have returned to the outside world cannot find a safe haven in China.

"Double-reverse"

Zou Jianming knows that his factory's experience is only a microcosm of the current industrial park in which he is located, and even the horrors of the entire domestic PV industry. The competitors around him are all dying. He found the information on the Internet and now includes Zhejiang Province. More than 80% of the nation's photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises have been caught in a production suspension.

Zou Jianming believes that the main culprit leading to the horrible photovoltaic industry today is the “double opposition” in Europe and America. He said that his factory signed long-term orders of hundreds of megawatts with some downstream European and American manufacturers as early as 2010. According to the contract, these orders will be paid until 2013, which is enough to support the company to get good at least until next year. The proceeds. However, "'double anti-' has come, all orders have been canceled, or delivery has been delayed, and tens of millions of shipments have instantly become a bubble."

Indeed, in the eyes of many insiders, the disaster caused by the “double-reverse” to the domestic PV industry is almost “dead”. Liang Tian, ​​director of public relations for Yingli Green Energy, even bluntly stated that the high tariffs imposed on photovoltaic products in China by Europe and the United States will cause China's PV companies to lose their competitive edge and be forced to withdraw from the main market. More importantly, the operation of domestic PV backbone enterprises Difficulties will lead to a series of serious social and economic problems such as bankruptcy of affiliated companies and impaired bank credit. He pointed out that the EU's anti-dumping against China will directly lead to more than 350 billion yuan in output value losses and more than 200 billion yuan in non-performing loans.

In fact, as of the first three quarters of this year, almost all PV companies, including Suntech Power, LDK and Yingli Green Energy, continued to lose money, and LDK’s LDK losses exceeded RMB 2 billion. Not only that, as of August this year, the debt of China's 10 largest PV companies has reached 1.11 billion yuan, and the asset-liability ratio has generally exceeded 80%. Suntech Power and LDK have been rumored to be bankrupt, but they have been rescued by their local governments.

Overcapacity "magic"

Photovoltaic expert Wang Sicheng believes that the "double opposition" in Europe and the United States is only the trigger for the crisis of China's photovoltaic industry. The problem is still in the Chinese enterprises themselves.

The reflections on the Chinese PV industry in the industry and abroad are frequently reported, and the recurring keyword is “overcapacity”.

Speaking of overcapacity in photovoltaics, the most frequently mentioned set of figures is that the global PV module production capacity in 2011 is about 60 GW, of which the total capacity of components already in and under construction in China is about 30 GW, while the global increase in 2011 The installed capacity is only 29.7GW.

In fact, for an industry with overcapacity, Europe and the United States are more likely to use capacity utilization. In this regard, Wang Sicheng provided a set of data: global photovoltaic module production capacity is 60GW by the end of 2011, the actual output is 30GW, while last year China's actual production capacity was 40GW, the actual output is only 21GW. This means that the PV module capacity utilization rate is only about 50%, far below the industry-recognized "standard capacity utilization rate of more than 70%".

The consequence of overcapacity is that the company will be in the long-term destocking stage. According to the statistics of China Securities Journal, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, the inventory of 66 A-share PV companies in China has exceeded 50 billion yuan; while the sales revenue of these 66 companies in the first three quarters was less than 10 billion yuan. This means that it is at least four years for domestic PV companies to digest the backlog of inventory based on current market sales.

On the other hand, under the shadow of overcapacity, the situation of low-cost competition among domestic PV companies is difficult to change in the short term. In the past six years, the price of photovoltaic modules has dropped by 86.6%, and the system price has dropped by 83.3%. At present, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic products including leading enterprises is less than 10%, and some even have negative gross profit margins. Even if the PV market demand picks up in the future, if the company continues to sell products at low prices to digest inventories, its profitability will not be able to return to normal levels for a long time.

Zou Jianming told the China Securities Journal reporter that in the past year, his mobile phone was on standby for 24 hours, waiting for the customer to order, even if it was less than the cost of the loss, he was not afraid, as long as the funds can be returned. "It is often the first day of the telephone to check the price and then verbally say that the next day to pick up the goods, but the next morning, a phone call said that another manufacturer's offer is lower than you, so a single business will be yellow." Zou Jianming said The most entangled is the price of one day, unable to understand the market, resulting in many manufacturers being slowly dragged to death in this endless price war.

Behind the overcapacity is the endless expansion of capacity in the past when the market is good, including many leading companies. The encounter with LDK is evidence. Zou Jianming also confessed that if he did not misjudge the situation at the beginning, he believed that photovoltaics would be better tomorrow. He would not almost press on the sales revenue of half of 2010 to expand the new production line. Now he has fallen to the dilemma of returning funds from selling assets.

"Save the city" is hard to pay

If 2012 can be positioned as a disaster year for Chinese PV companies, then it can also be positioned as the first year of the domestic PV market. In this year, policy and industry stakeholders have made efforts to “melt ice” in the domestic market: the “12th Five-Year” industrial planning target has been expanded again, and the grid’s first “statement” has opened a “green light” for photovoltaic power generation projects... It seems that the photovoltaic industry Another "spring" has already dawned.

However, industry insiders cautiously reminded that the long-term accumulation of the photovoltaic industry has not yet come out of the bottom, the overcapacity shadow and the domestic market "far from the hydrolysis can not be thirsty" reality, destined for the development of the market is still not expected, at least in the next year to see Not at the moment when "the spring is shining".

For the current photovoltaic industry, the large-scale launch of the domestic market is both necessary and long-term. However, in order to resolve the debt burden of more than 100 billion yuan in the whole industry in a short period of time, the current industrial planning goals and the "friendly" posture of the power grid may still be useless.

First of all, domestic PV demand is still unable to replace Europe and the United States. In 2011, China's solar power installed capacity totaled 3GW. According to the latest “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, it will reach 21GW by 2015, and there will be about 4-5GW of new installed capacity every year in the next few years. In 2011, more than 80% of the world's solar power installed in the world was installed in Europe and the United States. The growth of domestic demand can only make up 20% of the losses of Chinese companies in the European and American markets.

Secondly, although the State Grid proposes to provide system planning, grid-connected testing, commissioning and other full-process services for eligible distributed PV projects in the future, no fee will be charged, and surplus power will be fully acquired, but the grid-connected technical standards will be introduced immediately. A running-in period is needed, and according to the principle of “spontaneous self-use and excess power on the Internet” of distributed photovoltaic power generation, the key issue of how to self-use electricity and how to purchase excess electricity from the grid is still unsolved.

Third, the country can subsidize photovoltaic power generation in a scientific and rational way and with the financial resources it can invest. There is no answer at present.

At the moment, from the local to the enterprise, the China Securities Journal reporter heard the most response. The 15 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic power generation “big single” issued by the state is still too far away, and the new round of “Golden Sun” project is proposed by the end of the year. The newly added installed capacity of 3 million kilowatts sounds more reliable, because the principle of state subsidy proposed by this project is to provide front-end subsidies according to the total installed capacity of the project. The initial investment in photovoltaic power plants is large, and the front-end subsidies obviously can boost the enthusiasm of enterprises. Moreover, the problem of “grid-connected” may be better solved than before, and the return on investment of the project is also guaranteed.

Wang Sicheng said that if the subsidy is based on the terminal electricity price of 0.4 to 0.6 yuan in the future, this method is more conducive to the quality of the photovoltaic power station project than the “golden sun” according to the initial investment subsidy. However, according to the 15GW target budget proposed by the National Energy Administration's September Distributed Photovoltaic Power Demonstration Park, even with subsidies of 0.6 yuan/kWh, the country's annual financial subsidy is about 6 billion yuan. The total investment of distributed power stations is calculated at 10 yuan per watt, and the total investment required will exceed 150 billion yuan. "Try to think, how difficult is it to expect the 6 billion subsidies to drive the 150 billion market?" Wang Sicheng asked.

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