Domestic butadiene rubber prices fell by 12.4%

In November, domestic butadiene rubber prices continued to fall. At the end of the month, the mainstream price in the market was 17,600 yuan/ton, a fall of 12.4%, which was close to the 3-year low of 17,100 yuan/ton in the same period of 2009, and was the most tragic decline in synthetic rubber. Variety.

Raw material butadiene price fluctuation is an important factor in the price drop of butadiene rubber. In November, the price of butadiene inside and outside the disk fell by about 20%. Therefore, the raw material cost of butadiene rubber was greatly affected. The butadiene rubber is mainly used to make tread rubber and sidewall rubber in automobile tires, accounting for more than 70% of its consumption. In the second half of the year, the demand for synthetic rubber such as butadiene rubber in the tire industry is weak. In addition, the production and sales volume of domestic Japanese cars declined significantly, further affecting the demand for synthetic rubber.

Butadiene rubber manufacturers have chosen to shut down the device or reduce the operating rate. Shanghai Gaoqiao, Dushanzi Petrochemical, Lande Refinement, Qilu Petrochemical, Huayu Rubber, Taiwan Rubber - Ube (Nantong) and other sets of butadiene rubber equipment have recently been shut down for maintenance.

The reduction in production once suppressed the decline in butadiene rubber. However, since late November, due to the slowdown in demand, domestic petrochemical companies have repeatedly lowered the ex-factory price, and the spot price of butadiene rubber has decreased. The actual transaction price has even gone upside down.

In 2011, the domestic new butadiene rubber project was put into production. The market price once reached a five-year high of 35,800 yuan/ton. However, with the substantial increase in supply, prices have seen an almost 40% adjustment since then. This year, domestic butadiene rubber production capacity has further expanded. Daqing Petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical, and Yanshan Petrochemical newly installed facilities have all been put into production. Yangzi Jinpu, Maoming Petrochemical and Zhejiang Chuanhua three sets of 100,000 tons/year butadiene rubber plant will soon be completed and put into production. It is estimated that the total domestic production capacity in 2015 will be close to 2 million tons. With the stabilization of the growth rate of China's auto industry and structural changes in the tire industry, the growth rate of general-purpose butadiene rubber will gradually slow down. It is expected that the annual average demand growth in the next few years will be around 6%, and the apparent demand in 2015 will be about 1.2 million tons.

As China's tire consumption structure is transformed from biased tires to radial tires, from inner tubes to tubeless ones, high-performance tires and green tires are increasing, and the demand for rare earth butadiene rubber will continue to increase. It is expected that in 2015 China's demand for rare earth butadiene rubber will increase to about 80,000 tons. Given the oversupply of the general plastics market, rare earth rubber will become a major highlight of the industry.