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Disk review:
The LME base metal price plummeted on Friday. Driven by the sharp fall in the price of copper, other metals have fallen, creating a larger intraday decline in the near future. The aluminum price continued its rally on Thursday and the price was approaching the high point of this round of $2,850/ton. However, after a straight decline and lack of buying support when it fell, it almost became a free fall. It was only relative to the price of copper. In terms of the situation, the downtrend is still restrained. The trading volume on that day was enlarged to 160,000 lots, further aggravating the panic in the market.
On Monday, the price of copper and aluminum in the Shanghai Futures Exchange unexpectedly plunged. The price of copper was directly hit by the daily limit, and there was no chance of opening up the board throughout the day. The resistance of aluminum prices was relatively tenacious, not only has not been hit by the low limit, but also showed a trend of slowly rising throughout the day. The closing price was 1 percentage point higher than the daily low, and the trading volume also increased compared with last Friday, showing that the bargain has been bought Pan still dared to actively intervene.
At the close of trading today, the month's contract of 0611 closed at 20510 yuan/ton, and -540 yuan; the main contract of 0701 closed at 20110 yuan/ton, -450 yuan, and the remaining contracts fell by 380 to 490 yuan. Today's total market turnover was 183,032 lots. The total volume was 19,003 lots and 3734 lots were lightened.
Market analysis:
LME aluminum prices have been oscillating violently since late October. Especially since last Wednesday, the price volatility has been extremely severe and it has been difficult for the market to grasp. In general, there is a high possibility that the sharp oscillations in prices in high-priced areas will form the top. Considering the negative news that the market is more recent, such as the resumption of production capacity of idle aluminum plants in the West, the US economy has experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline, and China’s output has grown strongly. Investment bank’s perceptions of the market have changed. Nearer Merrill Lynch published a report that 2007 Copper prices will fall by 30%, and the cost reductions caused by falling spot alumina prices will not be expected. These news effects on investors' mentality cannot be ignored.
The author believes that the market's constant legendary forced market position has been completely destroyed. However, the high positions show that the funds have not withdrawn from the market. With this alone, it is impossible to completely deny the possibility of re-runout in December. However, the bulls have wasted a good opportunity to start the market. Even if the market is forced to re-sell, its strength is quite doubtful. From a speculative point of view, the risk-reward ratio that Bo has used to push out positions has been inappropriate. However, the backhand short is too urgency. In the absence of signs that the US and China's economy has suddenly deteriorated, or that positions have suddenly been greatly reduced, the current fall in aluminum prices may only fall back into the previous box and continue to collapse. Only by breaking down the $2,400/ton can Confirm the existence of a downtrend.
The LME base metal price plummeted on Friday. Driven by the sharp fall in the price of copper, other metals have fallen, creating a larger intraday decline in the near future. The aluminum price continued its rally on Thursday and the price was approaching the high point of this round of $2,850/ton. However, after a straight decline and lack of buying support when it fell, it almost became a free fall. It was only relative to the price of copper. In terms of the situation, the downtrend is still restrained. The trading volume on that day was enlarged to 160,000 lots, further aggravating the panic in the market.
On Monday, the price of copper and aluminum in the Shanghai Futures Exchange unexpectedly plunged. The price of copper was directly hit by the daily limit, and there was no chance of opening up the board throughout the day. The resistance of aluminum prices was relatively tenacious, not only has not been hit by the low limit, but also showed a trend of slowly rising throughout the day. The closing price was 1 percentage point higher than the daily low, and the trading volume also increased compared with last Friday, showing that the bargain has been bought Pan still dared to actively intervene.
At the close of trading today, the month's contract of 0611 closed at 20510 yuan/ton, and -540 yuan; the main contract of 0701 closed at 20110 yuan/ton, -450 yuan, and the remaining contracts fell by 380 to 490 yuan. Today's total market turnover was 183,032 lots. The total volume was 19,003 lots and 3734 lots were lightened.
Market analysis:
LME aluminum prices have been oscillating violently since late October. Especially since last Wednesday, the price volatility has been extremely severe and it has been difficult for the market to grasp. In general, there is a high possibility that the sharp oscillations in prices in high-priced areas will form the top. Considering the negative news that the market is more recent, such as the resumption of production capacity of idle aluminum plants in the West, the US economy has experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline, and China’s output has grown strongly. Investment bank’s perceptions of the market have changed. Nearer Merrill Lynch published a report that 2007 Copper prices will fall by 30%, and the cost reductions caused by falling spot alumina prices will not be expected. These news effects on investors' mentality cannot be ignored.
The author believes that the market's constant legendary forced market position has been completely destroyed. However, the high positions show that the funds have not withdrawn from the market. With this alone, it is impossible to completely deny the possibility of re-runout in December. However, the bulls have wasted a good opportunity to start the market. Even if the market is forced to re-sell, its strength is quite doubtful. From a speculative point of view, the risk-reward ratio that Bo has used to push out positions has been inappropriate. However, the backhand short is too urgency. In the absence of signs that the US and China's economy has suddenly deteriorated, or that positions have suddenly been greatly reduced, the current fall in aluminum prices may only fall back into the previous box and continue to collapse. Only by breaking down the $2,400/ton can Confirm the existence of a downtrend.
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