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Looking back on 2014, the US Dollar Index rose to 90 levels, hitting a high of nearly eight years and becoming one of the focus of the global investment market. At the same time that the US dollar rose, the prices of commodities quoted in US dollars fell. The CRB index, which reflects the price of 19 kinds of commodities, fell more than 15% in 2014. Among them, energy-related commodities fell the most. Crude oil, gasoline and natural gas fell by nearly 41%, 44% and 27% respectively, and the declines were mainly It appeared in the fourth season, and the decline is waiting to be stabilized.
As for the coal price of Taiwang Island, which was not reflected in the CRB index, it fell by nearly 15% in 2014, but the price rebounded by nearly 7% in the fourth quarter. Recently, the country has successively launched national policies for coal supply. For example, in the second half of 2014, a series of policies to limit production of coal and increase import tariffs on coal will be launched to alleviate the situation of coal industry to resolve excess capacity. I believe it will be the cause of coal price. one. As for demand, the Chinese government has also lowered the export tariff rate for coal products since January 1, which is expected to drive the export market for coal. Furthermore, other national policies recently introduced, such as the “One Belt, One Road†policy, can boost demand for energy such as coal and are expected to become another factor supporting coal prices.
Among the listed companies in Hong Kong, there are many companies engaged in coal-related businesses. However, due to the sluggish coal industry in recent years, many companies recorded losses in the latest fiscal year. Fortunately, after years of sluggishness, the coal industry is finally expected to bottom out and even rebound. However, when selecting investment targets, we will directly select the better ones to improve the defensiveness of the portfolio.
In terms of shareholder return (ROE), in the latest fiscal year, China Shenhua (1088) and Yitai Coal (3948) had the highest ROEs of 15.82% and 16.78%, respectively. Although Yitai Coal's ROE is higher, it is mainly driven by the high debt ratio (Financial Leverage); if it is profitable, it is slightly better than China Shenhua, its marginal profit (NetProfitMargin) is 15.9%, higher than Yitai Coal. 14.1%.
In other words, Yitai Coal's ROE quality is slightly lower, which can also be reflected in its valuation. The price-earnings ratio (PE) and price-to-book ratio (PB) of Yitai Coal are 5.4 times and 0.87 times, respectively, which are lower than 8.4 times and 1.3 times of China Shenhua. From the stock price point of view, Yitai Coal's share price has repeatedly fallen since the listing, and recently hit a low level; on the contrary, China Shenhua's share price performance is relatively better.
Furthermore, for Hong Kong investors, it is also familiar with China Shenhua, which was listed earlier than June 2005, and Yitai Coal was only listed in Hong Kong from B shares to H shares in July 2012; China Shenhua is more popular with institutional investors. The list of shareholders includes JPMorganChase & Co. (9.98%) and BlackRock (8.31%). In general, if the coal industry bottoms out, China Shenhua will be the industry's first choice.
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