Weekly commodity review: Signs of stabilization in industrial products have led international oil prices to lead the market

This week (10th to 14th) was the first week after the National Day holiday. Most of the industrial products rebounded steadily after the previous heavy fall. Only a few varieties such as cotton and PVC remained weak, and they reached a new low. The rebound in international oil prices has led to an increase in the overall commodity market. Among them, London’s oil price rose for the most part in more than seven months in a single week.

During the long holiday of the National Day holiday, there was no obvious trend in the external market. Most varieties stabilized after entering the market and settled into shocks. Therefore, when the domestic market began to trade this week, it did not face the risk of an outstanding gap. The main reason is that the international macro environment has not been significantly improved or continues to deteriorate.

After the holiday, the progress of the European debt crisis was mixed. The expansion of the Eurozone aid plan was successively approved by the relevant Eurozone national parliaments. However, Spain’s rating was lowered and still hit market sentiment. The market's concerns about the global economic growth prospects have not faded, and the macroeconomic side is still facing greater uncertainty. Therefore, most of the commodities did not show a clear trend rebound but instead stabilized after stabilizing.

The commodities leader, crude oil, performed well this week, continuing the rebound last week, especially on Friday, when oil prices rose sharply, driven by the sharp increase in US retail sales in September. As of the close of the trading day, the price of light crude oil for delivery in November in the New York market closed at US$86.80 per barrel, up 3.05% on that day and gaining 4.60% for the entire week. The price of Brent crude oil in the North Sea, which was delivered by the London market in November, surged by 3.21% to US$114.68 per barrel. It rose by 8.3% for the whole week, setting the biggest weekly gain since February 25 this year.

International gold prices continued to fluctuate since the end of September. All week **, spot gold prices rose by more than 2%. The domestic gold price also closely followed up and ended the three-week downtrend. The Shanghai Gold main contract rose by 2.28%.

From the perspective of the domestic market, from the latest CPI data, there are signs of falling, which is good for the commodity market, but the level of inflation is still at a high level, and the liquidity contraction policy can hardly be relaxed, which also makes its boosting effect limited. On the whole, the recent economic data released by China and the United States and the euro zone's concerns are slightly slower, which favors the domestic commodity market, and most varieties have rebounded, especially for copper, rubber and other industrial products. From the specific varieties:

Non-ferrous metal has been divided, Shanghai copper rose 2.23% throughout the week, Shanghai lead, Shanghai aluminum rose 1.28% and 0.33%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.68%. Analyst Yan Xia, a non-ferrous metal analyst for Commodity Data, a business data platform, believes that although some colored products currently have cost support and limited supply of good products, they eventually failed to meet the downstream demand sluggishness. As the weather turns cold, the real demand of the market is low season. As the arrival of the colored market is limited, it will continue to oscillate in the short term.

In terms of steel, Shanghai rebar continued to fall, but the pace of slowdown slowed down to a 0.58% decline throughout the week. The "Jinjiu" steel market has already burst, and the "silver ten" is also difficult to reproduce. The spot market transactions remain sluggish, the social inventories have increased significantly, the pessimistic atmosphere of traders has increased, coupled with the current uncertain macroeconomic environment and policies, Shanghai rebar is expected to be in the medium term. The weak pattern is still difficult to change. Even if it rebounds, it does not have the momentum to continue to rise. The market needs to pay attention to changes in the macro environment.

In the energy and chemical industry, natural rubber rebounded by nearly 4%. Thailand's floods and persistent heavy rains were the hot spots in recent market speculation and supported the current price of natural rubber. However, the future was not optimistic. The coke fell sharply two weeks before the end of the week, with a slight rebound of 0.93%. The continuing downturn in the steel market and the overcapacity of coke still constrain the coke price, making it vulnerable to falling. Fuel oil has not been boosted by international crude oil, slightly down 0.21%, and petrochemical products such as plastics and PVC fell by 0.79% and 1.3% respectively.

The oils and fats sector, which was affected by the continued fall in the external long holiday, opened shortly after the opening on Monday, and continued to recover despite repeated rebounds on several trading days. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all recorded weak weeks. Decline. Although there are signs of stabilizing, with the post-holiday demand entering a relatively low season, it is difficult for the oil market to get rid of the weak trend.

In terms of crops, many new varieties were listed on the market, seasonal pressure on the market, cotton and corn declined slightly, but soybeans and sugar still rose by 1.89% and 0.74% respectively. The reasons for the differentiation of various varieties are mainly due to their different supply and demand fundamentals.

Looking at the entire commodity market, crude oil, gold, nonferrous metals and other industrial products performed more steadily this week. All kinds of signals indicate that the long-short power is changing. Liu Xintian, a senior analyst at Commissaire Commodities, believes that although many products have fallen, they are actually affected by previous factors. So far, there is not much bearish information in October. It is expected that commodity markets in the middle and late October will have an opportunity to emerge. A wave of market.